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Kelp forests (Order Laminariales) form key biogenic habitats in coastal regions of temperate and Arctic seas worldwide, providing ecosystem services valued in the range of billions of dollars annually. Although local evidence suggests that kelp forests are increasingly threatened by a variety of stressors, no comprehensive global analysis of change in kelp abundances currently exists.Here, we build and analyze a global database of kelp time series spanning the past half-century to assess regional and global trends in kelp abundances. We detected a high degree of geographic variation in trends, with regional variability in the direction and magnitude of change far exceeding a small global average decline (instantaneous rate of change = −0.018 y −1 ). Our analysis identified declines in 38% of ecoregions for which there are data (−0.015 to −0.18 y −1 ), increases in 27% of ecoregions (0.015 to 0.11 y −1 ), and no detectable change in 35% of ecoregions. These spatially variable trajectories reflected regional differences in the drivers of change, uncertainty in some regions owing to poor spatial and temporal data coverage, and the dynamic nature of kelp populations. We conclude that although global drivers could be affecting kelp forests at multiple scales, local stressors and regional variation in the effects of these drivers dominate kelp dynamics, in contrast to many other marine and terrestrial foundation species. A ssessing ecosystem change on a global scale has been instrumental in highlighting the magnitude of human impacts on natural ecosystems. For example, awareness of global declines in fish populations (1), coral reefs (2), and tropical rainforests (3) has substantially increased public interest and subsequent political motivation for environmental conservation. In some cases, global assessments have highlighted complex patterns of change (4, 5), which often reflect variable trajectories among regions (4). SignificanceKelp forests support diverse and productive ecological communities throughout temperate and arctic regions worldwide, providing numerous ecosystem services to humans. Literature suggests that kelp forests are increasingly threatened by a variety of human impacts, including climate change, overfishing, and direct harvest. We provide the first globally comprehensive analysis of kelp forest change over the past 50 y, identifying a high degree of variation in the magnitude and direction of change across the geographic range of kelps. These results suggest region-specific responses to global change, with local drivers playing an important role in driving patterns of kelp abundance. Increased monitoring aimed at understanding regional kelp forest dynamics is likely to prove most effective for the adaptive management of these important ecosystems.

No abstract

A key consideration in assessing impacts of climate change is the possibility of synergistic effects with other human-induced stressors. In the ocean realm, climate change and overfishing pose two of the greatest challenges to the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. In eastern Tasmania, temperate coastal waters are warming at approximately four times the global ocean warming average, representing the fastest rate of warming in the Southern Hemisphere. This has driven range extension of the ecologically important long-spined sea urchin (Centrostephanus rodgersii), which has now commenced catastrophic overgrazing of productive Tasmanian kelp beds leading to loss of biodiversity and important rocky reef ecosystem services. Coincident with the overgrazing is heavy fishing of reef-based predators including the spiny lobster Jasus edwardsii. By conducting experiments inside and outside Marine Protected Areas we show that fishing, by removing large predatory lobsters, has reduced the resilience of kelp beds against the climate-driven threat of the sea urchin and thus increased risk of catastrophic shift to widespread sea urchin barrens. This shows that interactions between multiple humaninduced stressors can exacerbate nonlinear responses of ecosystems to climate change and limit the adaptive capacity of these systems. Management actions focused on reducing the risk of catastrophic phase shift in ecosystems are particularly urgent in the face of ongoing warming and unprecedented levels of predator removal from the world's oceans.climate change ͉ overgrazing ͉ sea urchin ͉ temperate reefs ͉ trophic interactions

Global climate change is predicted to have major negative impacts on biodiversity, particularly if important habitat-modifying species undergo range shifts. The sea urchin Centrostephanus rodgersii (Diadematidae) has recently undergone poleward range expansion to relatively cool, macroalgal dominated rocky reefs of eastern Tasmania (southeast Australia). As in its historic environment, C. rodgersii in the extended range is now found in association with a simplified 'barrens' habitat grazed free of macroalgae. The new and important role of this habitat-modifier on reef structure and associated biodiversity was clearly demonstrated by completely removing C. rodgersii from incipient barrens patches at an eastern Tasmanian site and monitoring the macroalgal response relative to unmanipulated barrens patches. In barrens patches from which C. rodgersii was removed, there was a rapid proliferation of canopy-forming macroalgae (Ecklonia radiata and Phyllospora comosa), and within 24 months the algal community structure had converged with that of adjacent macroalgal beds where C. rodgersii grazing was absent. A notable scarcity of limpets on C. rodgersii barrens in eastern Tasmania (relative to the historic range) likely promotes rapid macroalgal recovery upon removal of the sea urchin. In the recovered macroalgal habitat, faunal composition redeveloped similar to that from adjacent intact macroalgal beds in terms of total numbers of taxa, total individuals and Shannon diversity. In contrast, the faunal community of the barrens habitat is overwhelmingly impoverished. Of 296 individual floral/faunal taxa recorded, only 72 were present within incipient barrens, 253 were present in the recovered patches, and 221 were present within intact macroalgal beds. Grazing activity of C. rodgersii results in an estimated minimum net loss of approximately 150 taxa typically associated with Tasmanian macroalgal beds in this region. Such a disproportionate effect by a single range-expanding species demonstrates that climate change may lead to unexpectedly large impacts on marine biodiversity as key habitat-modifying species undergo range modification.