Recent reports have demonstrated that the United States has a dropout crisis of alarming proportions. In some large-city school systems, more than 50% of students leave high school without a diploma. A large proportion of these dropouts have not accumulated enough credits to be promoted beyond ninth grade. Using survey and student record data for a cohort of Philadelphia public school students, the authors find that ninth-grade academic outcomes are not simply proxies for student characteristics measured during the pre-high school years and that ninth-grade outcomes add substantially to the ability to predict dropout. An implication is that efforts to decrease the dropout rate would do well to focus on the critical high school transition year.

This paper examines the growth of adult enrollment in recent decades in the United States and its impact on the educational attainment of the population. First, in order to better understand the growth of adult enrollment, the change between 1970 and 1990 is decomposed into its demographic elements. Next, the projected growth of enrollments over the next decade are analyzed. Finally, the paper examines the cumulative impact of adult enrollment on educational levels, as well as on race and sex differentials in educational attainment. The study draws on data from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data Systems, the U.S. decennial censuses, and the School Enrollment Supplements of the October 1970October , 1980October , and 1990 Current Population Surveys. The results highlight the role of the baby-boom generation in spurring the growth of adult enrollments. They also show that adult enrollments contribute significantly to the educational attainment of the U.S. population.