A model of the United States petrochemical industry was constructed to explore the chemical manufacturing supply chains that will be impacted by changes in the price and availability of natural gas and natural gas liquids. Production costs of intermediate and end products (polymers, fertilizers, etc.) are impacted, for example, as shale gas production provides expanded primary feedstocks to the chemical industry at a lower cost than petroleum processing. The predicted impact of changes in natural gas and natural gas liquids prices on the production cost and energy intensity of intermediate and final end products is reported. In moving from a 2012 base level group of processes to a variety of longterm projected configurations of chemical manufacturing, acetaldehyde is identified as a potential bottleneck intermediate. Predicted production cost changes in intermediates, such as butadiene, and end products, such as polystyrene, are explored.

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A geographically resolved network model of the U.S. chemical industry in 2017 is constructed, and optimal chemical flows between units are calculated using linear programming. A baseline solution and three disruption scenarios (primary raw material disruptions, reported Hurricane Harvey ethylene cracker disruptions, and assumed capacity disruptions based on the Hurricane Harvey geographic storm track) are studied to determine how the structure of the industry is modified to adapt to widespread and geographically specific disruptions. The calculated impacts of the assumed Hurricane Harvey disruption include 170 chemical units in 26 states that change production level as a result of supply chain disruptions during the storm. The systemic impact for the assumed Hurricane Harvey disruption is 19.3 million tonnes of gross chemical production. The day with the largest impact on gross chemical production shows a reduction from baseline operations of 1.3 million tonnes (42% of baseline). This model can be used for analysis of future disruption scenarios and to test resilience strategies, including impacts of new manufacturing configurations or technologies.

Recent growth in natural gas and natural gas liquid feedstocks available for the chemical manufacturing industry in the United States has changed feedstock costs, potentially making new technologies cost-competitive with traditional chemical manufacturing routes. Because of the interconnected material flows throughout many parts of the chemical manufacturing industry, introducing new technologies can potentially change the use of many related processes throughout the chemical manufacturing system. A network model of the 2012 United States petrochemical industry has been used to analyze the effect of a new methane-to-aromatics technology on the industry's structure. The analysis examines the relationship between process cost and utilization and the ancillary effects caused by introduction of the new technology. Finally, the results show how selectivity of aromatic products from the new process is related to the cost-point when the process is likely to be introduced.

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