The trend of increasing major party polarization in the United States has raised concerns about the quality of representation and governance. One potential corrective is third parties, as they can hold the major parties accountable and instigate positive change. We, however, highlight limits to their influence. Two factors dampened the electoral support for third party candidates in the 2016 U.S. presidential election despite favorable conditions. First, the cost of third party voting is higher in the current polarized era, since casting a vote for a third party can lead to their less-favored major party candidate winning. Voters today have especially negative feelings toward their less-favored major party. Second, Trump co-opted voters distrustful of the government, which is a group that tends to support third parties. Our analysis of American National Election Studies (ANES) data from 1992 and 2016 shows support for both factors.

Previous research has noted the transformation of the American parties since the 1970s, as exhibited in their increased ideological polarization and transformation on social issues like civil rights, abortion, and the environment. We contribute to the literature on party change by theoretically stressing the decentralized and individualistic nature of American parties, while using a measure of party change that is based on legislative behavior beyond roll call voting. Our paper uses social network analysis to analyze the parties from the 93rd to 110th Congresses, utilizing bill cosponsorship to define connections between members. Our analysis illustrates how the core of the party, that is, who are most central in the cosponsorship network, has changed over time. We find evidence that party centrality influenced retirement decisions, thereby reinforcing and contributing to party change.

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