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K. 2005. The elevational gradient in Andean bird species richness at the local scale: a foothill peak and a high-elevation plateau. Á/ Ecography 28: 209 Á/222.A monotonic decline in species richness with increasing elevation has often been considered a general pattern, but recent evidence suggests that the dominant pattern is hump-shaped with maximum richness occurring at some mid-elevation point. To analyse the relationship between species richness and elevation at a local scale we surveyed birds from lowlands to timberline in the Bolivian Andes. We divided the transect into 12 elevational belts of 250 m and standardized species richness in each belt with both individual-and sample-based rarefaction and richness estimation. The empirical data were then correlated to four explanatory variables: 1) area per elevational belt, 2) elevation (also representing ecosystem productivity), 3) a middomain effect (MDE) null model of geometrically constrained empirical range sizes, and 4) a hump-shaped model derived empirically for South American birds representing the regional species pool hypothesis. Local species richness peaked at ca 1000 m elevation, declined sharply to ca 1750 m, and then remained roughly constant. Elevation was the best single predictor, accounting for 78 Á/85% of the variance in the empirical data. A multiple regression model with elevation, area, and MDE explained 85 Á/90% of the variance. Monte Carlo simulations showed that the richness peak at 1000 m is the result of an overlap of two distinct avifaunas (lowland and highland) and that the correlation to MDE in the multiple regression was likely spurious. We recommend complementing correlation analyses involving MDE predictions with an examination of the distribution of range midpoints. The steep decline at mid-elevations was mainly due to a rapid loss of lowland species. The high-elevation plateau is striking and unexpected, but has also been found previously. It cannot be explained at present and exemplifies that despite several decades of research elevational gradients are still not well understood.S. K. Herzog (skherzog@compuserve.com), Inst. fü r Vogelforschung ''Vogelwarte

Conservationists are increasingly relying on distribution models to predict where species are likely to occur, especially in poorly-surveyed but biodiverse areas. Modeling is challenging in these cases because locality data necessary for model formation are often scarce and spatially imprecise. To identify methods best suited to modeling in these conditions, we compared the success of three algorithms (Maxent, Mahalanobis Typicalities and Random Forests) at predicting distributions of eight bird and eight mammal species endemic to the eastern slopes of the central Andes. We selected study species to have a range of locality sample sizes representative of the data available for endemic species of this region and also that vary in their distribution characteristics. We found that for species that are known from moderate numbers (N = 38-94) of localities, the three methods performed similarly for species with restricted distributions but Maxent and Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (Random Forests yielded better results for species with wider distributions. For species with small numbers of sample localities (N = 5-21), Maxent produced the most consistently successful results, followed by Random Forests and then Mahalanobis Typicalities. Because evaluation statistics for models derived from few localities can be suspect due to the poor spatial representation of the evaluation data, we corroborated these results with review by scientists familiar with the species in the field. Overall, Maxent appears to be the most capable method for modeling distributions of Andean bird and mammal species because of the consistency of results in varying conditions, although the other methods have strengths in certain situations.

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Abstract.We studied the patterns of species richness and range–size rarity (as a measure of endemism) of two plant groups (Pteridophyta, Bromeliaceae) and birds along two gradients of elevation, humidity and human land use in a forested Andean valley. Both transects covered the transition from an arid valley bottom through a cloud forest zone to relictual high‐elevation Polylepis forest, but transects differed in overall precipitation. Plants were surveyed in 88 plots of 400 m2 each, while birds were detected primarily through visual observations and tape recordings over areas of 0.3–1.5 km2. Global range sizes of all species were mapped on 1°‐grids and range‐size rarity was calculated as the mean inverse range size of all species recorded in elevational steps of 200 m. Patterns of species richness and range–size rarity were mainly unrelated between and within study groups. Monotonic increases and decreases and hump‐shaped patterns were observed for species richness as well as range–size rarity. Several of these patterns can be interpreted in the light of the ecological requirements of each taxonomic group, e.g. dependence of fern species richness on humidity or of bird richness on habitat complexity. Species richness of ferns and birds peaked at higher elevations along the less rainy transect, possibly as a result of higher levels of solar radiation and ecosystem productivity. Patterns of species richness and endemism of the study groups are causally unrelated and cannot be used to predict those of other groups at the spatial scale of this study. Human impact was highest in areas of mostly low to intermediate species richness, but was often high in zones of high endemism.