Background/aim Hypertension is a known risk factor for developing atrial fibrillation. However, there is limited data to investigate the association between morning blood pressure surge (MBPS) and paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF). We conducted the present study to determine whether there is a relationship between asymptomatic PAF and MBPS and whether MBPS may be a predictor of asymptomatic PAF episodes. Materials and methods This prospective study comprised 264 adult patients who were newly diagnosed with essential hypertension or were previously diagnosed but not receiving regular antihypertensive therapy. We evaluated the patients in 2 groups according to their 24-h electrocardiography monitoring results: group 1 included patients who exhibited PAF (n = 32, 23 females/9 males; mean age 60.2 ± 7.4 years) and group 2 included patients with no signs of PAF as a control group (n = 232, 134 females/98 males; mean age 56.9 ± 9.4 years). We calculated the MBPS as the difference between mean systolic blood pressure (SBP) in the 2 h after getting up and the minimum nocturnal SBP. Results MBPS values were significantly higher in group 1 than in group 2 (35.3 ± 7.0 vs. 22.0 ± 6.7, p < 0.001). MBPS was positively associated with left atrial diameter (LAD) (r = 0.441, p < 0.001), left ventricle mass index (LVMI) (r = 0.235, p < 0.001), the ratio of early (E) peak of mitral inflow velocity to early (Em) diastolic mitral annular velocity (E /Em) (r = 0.239, p < 0.001), 24-h mean (r = 0.270, p < 0.001) and daytime SBP (r = 0.291, p < 0.001). We determined a cut-off value for MBPS as 28.6 for predicting PAF episodes development and identified LAD and MBPS as independent risk factors for PAF. Conclusion Patients who had larger MBPS were observed to have higher PAF incidence. MBPS values may be sensitive in predicting asymptomatic episodes of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation.