The SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) novel corona virus represents a significant health risk, particularly in older patients. Cancer is one of the leading causes of death in most rich countries, and delivering chemotherapy may be associated with increased risk in the presence of a pandemic infection. Estimating this risk is crucial in making decisions about balancing risks and benefits from administering chemotherapy. However, there are no specific data about chemotherapy risks per se. Here we develop a simple model to estimate the potential harms in patients undergoing chemotherapy during a COVID outbreak. We use age-related case fatality rates as a basis for estimating risk, and use previous data from risk of death during influenza outbreaks to estimate the additional risk associated with chemotherapy. We use data from randomised trials to estimate benefit across a range of curative and palliative settings, and address the balance of benefit against the risk of harm. We then use those data to estimate the impact on national chemotherapy delivery patterns.

Background: Bone is the most common site of metastatic disease in advanced prostate cancer. Radium-223 (223 Ra) is a calcium-mimetic alpha-particle emitter, which has been shown to have activity in prostate cancer with clinical benefit in patients with symptomatic bone metastasis. The recommended schedule is six cycles of 223 Ra, 5 kBq/kg, at 4-weekly intervals. Although previous studies have assessed clinical outcomes in patients who received six cycles of Ra 223 , there is very little information about outcomes of patients receiving fewer courses of treatment. Patients and Methods: Patients with hormone-refractory metastatic prostate cancer treated from May 2014 to August 2016 were included in this retrospective study. A total of 113 patients were identified with a median age of 76 (range=52-92) years. The median number of cycles administered was 5 (range=1-6) with 54 (48%) completing six cycles of treatment. Eighty-five patients (75%) received 223 Ra prior to docetaxel chemotherapy and 28 (25%) received it after receiving docetaxel. Results: Eleven patients developed grade 2/3 thrombocytopenia, and none of these received further 223 Ra. Only 25% of patients who had a haemoglobin level of 10 g/dl or below at the start of the treatment were able to complete six courses of 223 Ra. Of the patients who completed fewer than six cycles of 223 Ra (1-5 cycles), the survival was 121 days, compared to 398 days in men who received six cycles (odds ratio(OR)=4.767, 95% confidence internal(CI)=1.07-21.25; p=0.0005). Conclusion: Careful selection of patients is essential to obtain good clinical outcomes from 223 Ra therapy. When fewer than six cycles were delivered then a beneficial survival effect was not seen. Prostate cancer is the second most common cancer in men, with a worldwide incidence of 1.1 million new cases/year (1, 2). The treatment of metastatic prostate cancer has evolved with the use of docetaxel chemotherapy and third-generation endocrine agents such as abiraterone and enzalutamide (3-7). Since the first trials with mitoxantrone plus prednisolone, numerous agents have been found to improve outcomes for patients with this disease. Bone is the most common site of metastasis in prostate cancer and leads to an increased risk of skeletal-related events which include pathological fractures, spinal cord/nerve root compression, limited mobility, increased morbidity, hypercalcaemia, increased pain and dependence on opioids. These can have a serious impact on quality of life and in turn affect survival in patients with advanced disease (8, 9). Newer bone-targeted therapies with different mechanisms of action, such as zolendronate and denosumab, are significant additions to the management of prostate cancer (10). Radium-223 (223 Ra) is a first in its class calcium-mimetic alpha-particle emitter which has been shown to have activity in prostate cancer, with clinical benefit in patients with symptomatic bone metastasis. It has a half-life of 11.43 days and is taken up preferentially in areas of high bone turnover, partic...

Aims During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, organisations have produced management guidance for cancer patients and the delivery of cytotoxic chemotherapy, but none has offered estimates of risk or the potential impact across populations. Materials and methods We combined data from four countries to produce pooled age-banded case fatality rates, calculated the sex difference in survival and used data from four recent studies to convert case fatality rates into age/sex-stratified infection fatality rates (IFRs). We estimated the additional risk of death in cancer patients and in those receiving chemotherapy. We illustrate the impact of these by considering the impact on a national incident cancer cohort and analyse the risk–benefit in some clinical scenarios. Results We obtained data based on 412 985 cases and 41 854 deaths. The pooled estimate for IFR was 0.92%. IFRs for patients with cancer ranged from 0 to 29% and were higher in patients receiving chemotherapy (0.01–46%). The risk was significantly higher with age and in men compared with women. 37.5% of patients with a new diagnosis of cancer in 2018 had an IFR ≥5%. Survival benefits from adjuvant chemotherapy ranged from 5 to 10% in some common cancers, compared with the increased risk of death from COVID-19 of 0–3%. Conclusions Older male patients are at a higher risk of death with COVID-19. Patients with cancer are also at a higher risk, as are those who have recently received chemotherapy. We provide well-founded estimates to allow patients and clinicians to better balance these risks and illustrate the wider impact in a national incident cohort.