Testing for variation in BRCA1 and BRCA2 (commonly referred to as BRCA1/2), has emerged as a standard clinical practice and is helping countless women better understand and manage their heritable risk of breast and ovarian cancer. Yet the increased rate of BRCA1/2 testing has led to an increasing number of Variants of Uncertain Significance (VUS), and the rate of VUS discovery currently outpaces the rate of clinical variant interpretation. Computational prediction is a key component of the variant interpretation pipeline. In the CAGI5 ENIGMA Challenge, six prediction teams submitted predictions on 326 newly‐interpreted variants from the ENIGMA Consortium. By evaluating these predictions against the new interpretations, we have gained a number of insights on the state of the art of variant prediction and specific steps to further advance this state of the art.

BRCA1 and BRCA2 (BRCA1/2) germline variants disrupting the DNA protective role of these genes increase the risk of hereditary breast and ovarian cancers. Correct identification of these variants then becomes clinically relevant, because it may increase the survival rates of the carriers. Unfortunately, we are still unable to systematically predict the impact of BRCA1/2 variants. In this article, we present a family of in silico predictors that address this problem, using a gene‐specific approach. For each protein, we have developed two tools, aimed at predicting the impact of a variant at two different levels: Functional and clinical. Testing their performance in different datasets shows that specific information compensates the small number of predictive features and the reduced training sets employed to develop our models. When applied to the variants of the BRCA1/2 (ENIGMA) challenge in the fifth Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation (CAGI 5) we find that these methods, particularly those predicting the functional impact of variants, have a good performance, identifying the large compositional bias towards neutral variants in the CAGI sample. This performance is further improved when incorporating to our prediction protocol estimates of the impact on splicing of the target variant.

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