We reinvestigate the delayed overshooting puzzle. Using a method of sign restrictions, we find that delayed overshooting is primarily a phenomenon of the 1980s when the Fed was under the chairmanship of Paul Volcker. Related findings are as follows: (1) Uncovered interest parity fails to hold during the Volcker era and tends to hold during the post-Volcker era; (2) US monetary policy shocks have substantial impacts on exchange rate variations but misleadingly appear to have small impacts when monetary policy regimes are pooled. In brief, we confirm Dornbusch's overshooting hypothesis.

This paper proposes an explanation for mixed evidence on the behaviors of markups. The key mechanism consists of two complementary channels through which firms handle uninsurable business losses. One channel is based on cost‐compensating motive, by which firms raise prices to reflect higher losses stochastically associated with higher output levels. The other channel is based on loss‐balancing motive, by which firms lower prices to countervail higher losses stochastically associated with higher output levels. The relative responsiveness of the two channels to a shock depends on each firm's fundamental characteristics and leads to a sharp division of markup cyclicality across sectors.

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