Islamic stock market is apparently different from the conventional stock market due to the prohibition of unlawful goods and excessive risk-taking behavior. This study explores the extent to which the Indonesian Islamic and conventional stock returns' volatility responds to the macroeconomic indicators. This study employs Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) and Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX) and uses monthly time-series data covering 2001: M1 - 2019: M12. The volatility of stock returns is measured using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH). By employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL), the results validate the evidence of the long-run relationship between the stock market's volatility and macroeconomic variables. A rising in money supply and an economic upturn reduce the volatility of conventional stock returns but only an expansionary money supply diminishes the volatility of Islamic stock returns. Conversely, high inflation and sharp depreciation of the Rupiah boost the stock returns' volatility. The results further show an interesting finding that the Islamic stock market's volatility is more responsive to changes in macroeconomic indicators than the volatility of their counterpart conventional stock market. Policymakers should take strict rules during the worst economic conditions to minimize the negative impact of the instability of macroeconomic variables.
This research attempts to explore to what extent the sensitivity volatility of Islamic stock markets in Indonesia toward macroeconomics. The writer examines inflation, exchange rates, money supply (JUB), interest rates (BIRATE), and Industrial Production Index (IPI) as part of the macroeconomic variables. Meanwhile, the writer also uses Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) as the measurements for Islamic stock markets. This research uses the calculation of the stock return volatility based on the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH (2, 1)) combined with Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analysis. The writer uses monthly data from Indonesia Stock Exchange, starting from January 2006 to December 2019 as part of the data collection. This research found that BIRATE has a negative effect on the conventional stock market while the Islamic stock market has a positive and insignificant effect on the level α = 5%. It points out the Islamic principles that the interest rate is not a significant variable in explaining the stock market’s volatility. According to the finding of this research, the writer argues that stabilizing interest rates will not significantly impact the volatility of the Islamic stock market.AbstrakPenelitian ini mencoba untuk mengeksplorasi sejauh mana sensitivitas volatilitas pasar saham syariah di Indonesia terkait dengan ekonomi makro. Penulis menggunakan inflasi, nilai tukar rupiah, penawaran uang (JUB), suku bunga (BI rate) dan Indeks Produksi Industri (IPI) sebagai pengukuran dari ekonomi makro. Sementara itu, penulis menggunakan Jakarta Islamic index (JII) sebagai pengukuran pasar saham syariah. Penelitian ini menggunakan perhitungan volatilitas return saham dengan Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH (2, 1) dikombinasikan dengan Analisis Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Pengumpulan data dalam penelitian ini menggunakan data bulanan dari Bursa Efek Indonesia dari bulan Januari 2006 sampai Desember 2019. Penelitian ini menemukan bahwa, variable BI Rate tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pasar saham syariah pada taraf α=5%. Ini menyoroti prinsip-prinsip Islam bahwa tingkat bunga bukanlah variabel yang signifikan dalam menjelaskan volatilitas pasar saham. Menurut temuan pada penelitian ini, penulis memberikan dukungan lebih lanjut bahwa menstabilkan suku bunga tidak akan berdampak signifikan pada volatilitas pasar saham syariah.
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