To more accurately reflect student attributes and enrollment patterns of today's freshmen, and to account for the impact of a new state-funded scholarship, this study expands the set of variables typically found in retention studies by putting greater focus on first-year academic performance, concurrent enrollment, financial aid support, and second-year transfer-out versus dropout/stopout behavior. Using multi-year cohorts at a public research university with a liberal undergraduate admissions policy, results confirm the importance of including first-year math experience, level of academic challenge in major, concurrent enrollment, and second-year financial aid offers when measuring freshmen retention. The positive impact of a large-scale scholarship program in widening access and evening out retention across income background must be balanced against findings that show academic performance and readiness to take on and pass difficult subject matter to be more important in explaining new freshmen dropout and transfer-out during both first and second semesters. Similarly, examining the influence of changing financial aid support between the first and second semester yields additional insight into why students progress to the second year. Specifically, middle-income students with greater levels of unmet need face an elevated departure risk, while academically well-prepared freshmen with unmet need are more likely to transfer to other institutions.3

Focusing on student retention and time to degree completion, this study illustrates how institutional researchers may benefit from the power of predictive analyses associated with data‐mining tools.

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A four‐step statistical process is proposed to take faculty compensation analysis from identification of possible inequities to potential salary adjustment options.