The fire history of the northern larch forests within the permafrost zone in a portion of northern Siberia (∼66 • N, 100 • E) was studied. Since there is little to no human activity in this area, fires within the study area were mostly caused by lightning. Fire return intervals (FRI) were estimated on the basis of burn marks on tree stems and dates of tree natality. FRI values varied from 130 to 350 yr with a 200 ± 50 yr mean. For southerly larch dominated communities, FRI was found to be shorter (77 ± 20 yr at ∼61 • N, and 82 ± 7 at 64 • N), and it was longer at the northern boundary (∼71 • ) of larch stands (320 ± 50 yr). During the Little Ice Age period in the 16th-18th centuries, FRI was approximately twice as long those as recorded in this study. Fire caused changes in the soil including increases in soil drainage and permafrost thawing depth, and a radial growth increase to about twice the background value (with more than six times observed in extreme cases). This effect may simulate the predicted warming impact on the larch growth in the permafrost zone.

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The expansion of so-called evergreen conifers (EGCs), including Siberian stone pine, spruce, and fir, along the transect oriented from the boundary of the larch-dominated zone (LDZ; mixed forests of the Yenisei Ridge) to its center has been studied. The normalized dispersal coefficient calculated as K i = ( n i -N i )/( n i + N i ) , where n i and N i are the relative numbers of the i th species in the undergrowth and the upper layer, respectively, serves as an indicator of the expansion. It has been found that the K i values for EGCs (and birch) are higher than the K i of larch even in the zone absolutely dominated by larch, where the relative numbers of EGCs in the upper layer is less than 1%. The EGC undergrowth has mainly been formed during the past 20-30 years, which is correlated with the trend of summer temperatures The spread of EGCs in the LDZ depends on the frequency of forest fires. The decrease in the time intervals between fires in the 20th century to 65 years (versus 100 years in the 19th century) may have prevented the expansion of competing species in the LDZ. The results obtained indicate that EGCs and birch penetrate into the zone traditionally dominated by larch, which is related to climatic changes during the past three decades. At the same time, tree stand density is increasing in the forest-tundra ecotone, and larch is spreading further into the tundra zone.

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