We developed a new method of adequacy analysis of electric power systems with wind and solar power stations. There are storage batteries in the electric power system. Various types of storage batteries can be used in electric power systems. They are electrochemical, hydroelectric, heat or air storages. The modelling of wind speed and solar radiation is based on software «Local analysis of environmental parameters and solar radiation». The original combination of modern models of meteorological data processing is used in the software. For adequacy analysis of electric power system, we use nonsingle estimation of electricity sacrifice in random hour. Simulation of random values is carried out by the Monte Carlo method.

We research influence of failures of overhead lines on reliability of autonomous power supply system with distributed generation in the given article. Simulation of failures of overhead lines are done on the base of long-term data of exploitation distributing electricity networks. Considered autonomous power supply system consists of wind and solar power stations. Diesel generators are emergency sources of electricity in the system. For adequacy estimation of electricity supply we many times simulated and analyzed of random states of autonomous power supply system. Results of experimental research confirm that detailed accounting of statistics of real failures of overhead lines increases of quality of reliability analysis.

No abstract

We suggest a new approach to optimization of the adequacy of electric power system under market conditions which involve competition of various interests of market agents. This feature makes unsuitable of traditional methods for optimization of the adequacy of electric power system. The reliability analysis of the variants of development of electric power system is carried out on the base of the Monte Carlo method. The profit of generating companies is calculated by the obtained reliability indexes which characterize some variant of electric power system development. The investigated variant of development of electric power system is effective if all generating companies choose a sufficient level of reliability that satisfies the consumer. The results of experimental research are presented in the paper.

We present a new model of adequacy optimization of electric power systems under market conditions in the article. Optimization is realized by a criteria of maximum of social welfare. Social welfare includes profits of generating companies according penalties of unreliable electricity supply, consumer surplus, costs for development and servicing of electricity grids. Adequacy analysis of variants of development of electric power system is based on multiple estimation of electricity shortage in a random hour of system work. We analyze system work in each of a random hour in two stages. For the first stage we define equilibrium electricity demand in each system node and equilibrium price of electricity according to Cournot model. For the next stage failures of power generating equipment and transmission lines are simulated. We also estimate of electricity shortage in a current hour on the second stage. Reliability indexes and profits of generating companies are formed after a whole cycle of computations. Values of a profit are depended on reliability of electricity supply. Simulation of random values is carried out by the Monte Carlo method.