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Плотников Владимир АлександровичСанкт-Петербургский государственный экономический университет Профессор кафедры общей экономической теории и истории экономической мысли Доктор экономических наук, профессор plotnikov_2000@mail.ru Шаныгин Сергей ИвановичСанкт-Петербургский государственный университет Доцент кафедры статистики, учета и аудита Кандидат экономических наук, доцент s.shanygin@spbu.ru РЕФЕРАТ В статье предложен инструментарий для исследования экономической макросреды ор-ганизации. Обоснована целесообразность использования для этого нестоимостных мак-роэкономических показателей, что особенно важно с учетом реализуемых в России мер политики импортозамещения. В качестве примера выявлены закономерности динамики скорости обращения денежной массы в отдельных странах, в сравнении с Россией, про-анализированы тренды этого показателя на основе модели двухступенчатого черного ящика. Сформулированы рекомендации по исследованию экономических систем с по-мощью полиномиальных моделей, результаты применения которых могут использовать-ся при анализе и прогнозировании процессов экономического развития с учетом факто-ра импортозамещения.КЛЮЧЕВЫЕ СЛОВА стратегическое управление организацией, внешняя среда, неполная информация, по-линомиальная модель, национальная экономика, санкции, импортозамещение Plotnikov V. A., Shanygin S. I. Influence of the Macroeconomic Environment on Management of the Organization Taking into Account an Import Substitution Factor Plotnikov Vladimir Aleksandrovich ABSTRACTIn the article tools for a research of an economic macroenvironment of the organization are offered. The expediency of use for this purpose of not cost macroeconomic cost indexes is proved that is * Подготовлено при финансовой поддержке Комитета по науке и высшей школе Санкт-Петербурга.

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The hospitality industry is the unity of all cooperating organizations, each of which performs certain functions aimed at meeting the needs of consumers. The purpose of the article is to review the hotel market of St. Petersburg in the pre-pandemic period. During the research, methods of system and economic analysis, statistical structural and dynamic analysis, correlation and regression analysis were used. To achieve this goal, the characteristics and lists of services of hotels of the main categories are structured. It analyses the key market indicators, such as occupancy and hotel room growth, the distribution of room stock by category, the ratio of tariffs for rooms in hotels of different categories, as well as tourist flow in the context of domestic and foreign citizens. The distribution of domestic and foreign tourists by districts of the city is considered, preferences are revealed. The analysis of the dynamics of changes in the main parameters of the market, including specific indicators, is carried out, demand and supply are compared. It is established that hotels in recent years have carried out activities to attract additional tourists. It is concluded that hotels of different categories did not have time to adapt to the increase in the number of tourists. The characteristics of the market that presumably influence the value of the Gross regional Product of the city are identified, and regression models are compiled. Assumptions are made about the trends in the development of the hotel market in St. Petersburg.

The industry and regional features of the Russian Federation are considered from the point of view of strategic management of companies operating on its territory. Relationships between the macroeconomic indicators presented in wide access were statistically analyzed; models of the relationship between them were developed. Partial assumptions about the reasons for the current economic situation in the country were made.