This paper describes a relatively simple model developed from observations of local fallout from US and USSR nuclear tests that allows reasonable estimates to be made of the deposition density (activity per unit area) on both the ground and on vegetation for each radionuclide of interest produced in a nuclear fission detonation as a function of location and time after the explosion. In addition to accounting for decay rate and in-growth of radionuclides, the model accounts for the fractionation (modification of the relative activity of various fission and activation products in fallout relative to that produced in the explosion) that results from differences in the condensation temperatures of the various fission and activation products produced in the explosion. The proposed methodology can be used to estimate the deposition density of all fallout radionuclides produced in a low yield, low altitude fission detonation that contribute significantly to dose. The method requires only data from post-detonation measurements of exposure rate (or beta or a specific nuclide activity) and fallout time-of-arrival. These deposition-density estimates allow retrospective as well as rapid prospective estimates to be made of both external and internal radiation exposure to downwind populations living within a few hundred kilometers of ground zero, as described in the companion papers in this volume.

The U.S. National Cancer Institute, in collaboration with the Belarusian Ministry of Health, is conducting a study of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases in a cohort of about 12,000 persons who were exposed to fallout from the Chernobyl accident in April 1986. The study subjects were 18 years old or younger at the time of exposure and resided in Belarus in the most contaminated areas of the Gomel and Mogilev Oblasts, as well as in the city of Minsk. All cohort members had at least one direct thyroid measurement made in April–June 1986. Individual data on residential history, consumption of milk, milk products and leafy vegetables as well as administration of stable iodine were collected for all cohort members by means of personal interviews conducted between 1996 and 2007. Based on the estimated 131I activities in the thyroids, which were derived from the direct thyroid measurements, and on the responses to the questionnaires, individual thyroid doses from intakes of 131I were reconstructed for all cohort members. In addition, radiation doses to the thyroid were estimated for the following minor exposure pathways: (a) intake of short-lived 132I, 133I and 132Te by inhalation and ingestion; (b) external irradiation from radionuclides deposited on the ground; and (c) ingestion intake of 134Cs and 137Cs. Intake of 131I was the major pathway for thyroid exposure; its mean contribution to the thyroid dose was 92%. The thyroid doses from 131I intakes varied from 0.5 mGy to almost 33 Gy; the mean was estimated to be 0.58 Gy, while the median was 0.23 Gy. The reconstructed doses are being used to evaluate the risk of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases in the cohort.

Settlements near the Semipalatinsk Test Site (SNTS) in northeastern Kazakhstan were exposed to radioactive fallout during [1949][1950][1951][1952][1953][1954][1955][1956][1957][1958][1959][1960][1961][1962]. Thyroid disease prevalence among 2994 residents of eight villages was ascertained by ultrasound screening. Malignancy was determined by cytopathology. Individual thyroid doses from external and internal radiation sources were reconstructed from fallout deposition patterns, residential histories and diet, including childhood milk consumption. Point estimates of individual external and internal dose averaged 0.04 Gy (range 0-0.65) and 0.31 Gy (0-9.6), respectively, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.46. Ultrasound-detected thyroid nodule prevalence was 18% and 39% among males and females, respectively. It was significantly and independently associated with both external and internal dose, the main study finding. The estimated relative biological effectiveness of internal compared to external radiation dose was 0.33, with 95% confidence bounds of 0.09-3.11. Prevalence of papillary cancer was 0.9% and was not significantly associated with radiation dose. In terms of excess relative risk per unit dose, our dose-response findings for nodule prevalence are comparable to those from populations exposed to medical X rays and to acute radiation from the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombings.

A short analysis of all 111 atmospheric events conducted at the Semipalatinsk Test Site (STS) in 1949-1962 with regard to significant off-site exposure (more than 5 mSv of the effective dose during the first year after the explosion) has been made. The analytical method used to assess external exposure to the residents living in settlements near the STS is described. This method makes use of the archival data on the radiological conditions, including the measurements of exposure rate. Special attention was given to the residents of Dolon and Kanonerka villages exposed mainly as a result of the first test, detonated on August 29, 1949. For the residents of those settlements born in 1935, the dose estimates calculated according to the analytical method, are compared to those derived from the thermoluminescence measurements in bricks and electron paramagnetic resonance measurements in teeth. The methods described in this paper were used for external dose assessment for the cohort members at an initial stage of an ongoing epidemiological study conducted by the U.S. National Cancer Institute in the Republic of Kazakhstan. Recently revised methods and estimates of external exposure for that cohort are given in another paper (Simon et al.) in this conference.