View the peer-reviewed version (peerj.com/articles/1357), which is the preferred citable publication unless you specifically need to cite this preprint.

Describing and understanding spatiotemporal spread patterns in invasive species remains a long standing interdisciplinary research goal. Here we show how a network based top down approach allows the efficient description of the ongoing invasion by Drosophila suzukii in Chile. To do so, we apply theoretical graph methods to calculate the minimum cost arborescence graph (MCA) to reconstruct and understand the invasion dynamics of D. suzukii since the first detection in 2017. This method estimates a directed rooted weighted graph by minimizing the total length of the resulting graph. To describe the temporal pattern of spread, we estimate three metrics of spread: the median dispersal rate, the median coefficient of diffusion, and the median dispersal acceleration. The estimated MCA shows that over four years, D. suzukii colonized a ~1,000 km long strip in the central valley of Chile, with an initial phase with long paths and connections and no clear direction pattern, folowed by a clearer north-east propagation pattern. The median dispersal rate for the entire period was 8.8 [7.4; 10.6, 95% CI], while the median diffusion coefficient was 19.6 meters2/day [13.6; 27.9, 95% CI]. The observed spread dynamics and the log-normal distribution of accelerations are consistent with long distance dispersal events. The complexities of real landscapes cannot be summarized in any model, but this study shows how an alternative top-down approach based on graph theory can facilitate the ecological analysis of the spread of an invasive species in a new territory.

View the peer-reviewed version (peerj.com/articles/1357), which is the preferred citable publication unless you specifically need to cite this preprint.

IntroductionForestry in many parts of the world depends on exotic species, making this industry a source of invasions in some countries. Among others, plantations of the genus Pinus, Eucalyptus, Acacia, Populus, and Pseudotsuga underpin the forestry industry and are a vital component of many countries economies. Among woody plants, the cosmopolitan genus Acacia includes some of the most commonly planted trees worldwide. In order to prevent, manage and control invasive plant species, one of the most used tools is species distribution models. The output of these models can also be used to obtain information about population characteristics, such as spatial abundance patterns or species performance. Although ecological theory suggests a direct link between fitness and suitability, this link is often absent. The reasons behind the lack of this relationship are multiple. Chile is one of the countries where Acacia species, in particular, A. dealbata and A. melanoxylon, have become invaders. MethodsHere, we used climatic and edaphic variables to predict thepotentially suitable habitats for A. dealbata and A. melanoxylon in continental Chile and evaluate if the suitability indices obtained from these models are associated with the observed performance of the trees along the country. ResultsOur models show that variable importance showed significant similarities between the variables that characterize each species’ niche. However, despite the high accuracy of our models, we did not observe an association between suitability and tree growth.DiscussionThis disconnection between suitability and performance can result from multiple causes, from structural limitations, like the lack of biotic interactions in the models, to methodological issues, like the usefulness of the performance metric used. Whatever the scenario, our results suggest that plans to control invasive species should be cautious in assuming this relationship in their design and consider other indicators such as species establishment success.