Globally, countries have resorted to social distancing, travel restrictions and economic lockdowns to reduce transmission of COVID-19. The socioeconomic costs of these blunt measures are expected to be high, especially in sub-Saharan Africa where many live hand-to-mouth and lack social safety nets. Social Accounting Matrix multiplier model results show that Ghana’s urban lockdown, although in force for only three weeks in April 2020, has likely caused GDP to fall by 27.9% during that period, while an additional 3.8 million Ghanaians temporarily became poor. Compared to the government’s revised GDP growth rate of 1.5% for 2020, the model predicts a contraction of 0.6 to 6.3% for 2020, depending on the speed of the recovery. The US$200 million budgeted for Ghana’s Coronavirus Alleviation Program will close only a small part of the estimated US$ 2.3 billion GDP gap between the fast recovery scenario and government’s revised GDP trajectory.

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Urban food systems in Ghana are changing, along with rapid urbanization and growth in household incomes. Using data from retail inventories of packaged products carried out in eight cities in 2015 and 2016, we find that the interplay of urbanization, imports and domestic processing and packaging has led to some surprising outcomes. Imports are dominant, especially for milled rice and tomato paste, and the shares are higher in smaller cities than in Accra. Imported products are more prevalent in traditional retail outlets than in modern retail outlets. Moreover, imported products come mainly from East Asia; excluding South Africa, which accounts for 6% of imports, less than 3% of imported products were from other African countries.

Globally, countries have resorted to social distancing, travel restrictions and economic lockdowns to reduce transmission of COVID-19. The socioeconomic costs of these blunt measures are expected to be high, especially in sub-Saharan Africa where many live hand-to-mouth and lack social safety nets. Social Accounting Matrix multiplier model results show that Ghana's urban lockdown, although in force for only three weeks in April 2020, has likely caused GDP to fall by 27.9% during that period, while an additional 3.8 million Ghanaians temporarily became poor. Compared to the government's revised GDP growth rate of 1.5% for 2020, the model predicts a contraction of 0.6 to 6.3% for 2020, depending on the speed of the recovery. The US$200 million budgeted for Ghana's Coronavirus Alleviation Program will close only a small part of the estimated US$ 2.3 billion GDP gap between the fast recovery scenario and government's revised GDP trajectory.

Ghana's aquaculture sector is among the recent success stories of fast-growing agricultural value chains in Africa south of the Sahara. The sector has also shown its vulnerability, with the infectious spleen and kidney necrosis virus spreading through tilapia farms in Lake Volta in late 2018. The global COVID-19 human pandemic reached Ghana in early 2020, affecting the sector directly and indirectly. Using a value chain approach, phone interviews were conducted with 369 small-scale fish farmers in six major producing regions, with 12 other value chain actors, and with 423 consumers in the capital, Accra, to assess the impact of COVID-19 on the sector. All value chain actors interviewed reported being affected directly by COVID-19 related restrictions on movement and indirectly by reduced demand for tilapia because of closures in the tourism and hospitality industries, important consumers of fresh tilapia. The crisis has reduced incomes for most actors along the aquaculture value chain and is anticipated to reduce future production. Most fish farmers surveyed were affected by disruptions in input and output markets. Two-thirds of the sample farmers were growing fish and 6 percent were harvesting when the COVID-19 crisis hit. Fifty-four percent of those growing fish experienced difficulties in accessing inputs -mainly fish feeds. Of those harvesting during the crisis, most experienced difficulty in selling their fish mainly because of low demand from buyers, lower tilapia prices, and higher transportation costs than before COVID-19. Income losses among fish farmers, including from other sources, such as crop farming, wage employment, and other own businesses, limits the funds that they have available to finance fish farming operations or to invest in future production capacity. Likewise, reduced incomes and purchasing power of consumers is causing a sharp decline in demand for fish.