Chemical risk assessment is important for risk management, and estimates of chemical exposure must be as accurate as possible. Chemical concentrations in food below the limit of detection are known as nondetects and result in left‐censored data. During statistical analysis, the method used for handling values below the limit of detection is important. Many risk assessors employ widely used substitution methods to treat left‐censored data, as recommended by international organizations. The National Institute of Food and Drug Safety Evaluation of South Korea also recommends these methods, which are currently used for chemical exposure assessments. However, these methods have statistical limitations, and international organizations recommend more advanced alternative statistical approaches. In this study, we assessed the validity of currently used statistical methods for handling nondetects. To identify the most suitable statistical method for handling nondetection, we created virtual data and conducted simulation studies. Based on both simulation and case studies, the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and Robust Regression on Order Statistics (ROS) methods were found to be the best options. The statistical values obtained from these methods were similar to those obtained from the commonly used 1/2 Limit of Detection (LOD) substitution method for nondetection treatment. In three case studies, we compared the various methods based on the root mean squared error. The data for all case studies were from the same source, to avoid heterogeneity. Across various sample sizes and nondetection rates, the mean and 95th percentile values for all treatment methods were similar. However, “lognormal maximum likelihood estimation” method was not suitable for estimating the mean. Risk assessors should consider statistical processing of monitoring data to reduce uncertainty. Currently used substitution methods are effective and easy to apply to large datasets with nondetection rates <80%. However, advanced statistical methods are required in some circumstances, and national guidelines are needed regarding their use in risk assessments.
The analysis of baseflow contribution is very significant in Korea because most rivers have high variability of streamflow due to the monsoon climate. Recently, the importance of such analysis is being more evident especially in terms of river management because of the changing pattern of rainfall and runoff resulted from climate change. Various baseflow separation methods have been developed to separate baseflow from streamflow. However, it is very difficult to identify which method is the most accurate way due to the lack of measured baseflow data. Moreover, it is inappropriate to analyze the annual baseflow contribution for Korean rivers because rainfall patterns varies significantly with the seasons. Thus, this study compared the baseflow contributions at various time-scales (annual, seasonal and monthly) for the 4 major river basins through BFI (baseflow index) and suggested baseflow contribution of each basin by the BFI ranges searched from different baseflow separation methods (e.g., BFLOW, HYSEP, PART, WHAT). Based on the comparison of baseflow contributions at the three time scales, this study showed that the baseflow contributions from the monthly and seasonal analysis are more reasonable than that from the annual analysis. Furthermore, this study proposes that defining BFI with its range is more proper than a specific value for a watershed, considering the difference of BFIs between various baseflow separation methods.
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