In construction projects, estimation of the settlement of fine-grained soils is of critical importance, and yet is a challenging task. The coefficient of consolidation for the compression index (Cc) is a key parameter in modeling the settlement of fine-grained soil layers. However, the estimation of this parameter is costly, time-consuming, and requires skilled technicians. To overcome these drawbacks, we aimed to predict Cc through other soil parameters, i.e., the liquid limit (LL), plastic limit (PL), and initial void ratio (e0). Using these parameters is more convenient and requires substantially less time and cost compared to the conventional tests to estimate Cc. This study presents a novel prediction model for the Cc of fine-grained soils using gene expression programming (GEP). A database consisting of 108 different data points was used to develop the model. A closed-form equation solution was derived to estimate Cc based on LL, PL, and e0. The performance of the developed GEP-based model was evaluated through the coefficient of determination (R 2 ), the root mean squared error (RMSE), and the mean average error (MAE). The proposed model performed better in terms of R 2 , RMSE, and MAE compared to the other models.

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BackgroundThe literature in statistics presents methods by which autocorrelation can identify the best period of measurement to improve the performance of a time-series prediction. The period of measurement plays an important role in improving the performance of disease-count predictions. However, from the operational perspective in public health surveillance, there is a limitation to the length of the measurement period that can offer meaningful and valuable predictions.ObjectiveThis study aimed to establish a method that identifies the shortest period of measurement without significantly decreasing the prediction performance for time-series analysis of disease counts.MethodsThe data used in this evaluation include disease counts from 2007 to 2017 in northern Nevada. The disease counts for chlamydia, salmonella, respiratory syncytial virus, gonorrhea, viral meningitis, and influenza A were predicted.ResultsOur results showed that autocorrelation could not guarantee the best performance for prediction of disease counts. However, the proposed method with the change-point analysis suggests a period of measurement that is operationally acceptable and performance that is not significantly different from the best prediction.ConclusionsThe use of change-point analysis with autocorrelation provides the best and most practical period of measurement.