Background Policymakers use simulation-based models to improve system feedback and model the reality of the problems in the system. This study uses the system dynamics approach to provide a model for predicting hospital bed shortages and determine the optimal policy in Shiraz, Southern Iran. Methods This study was designed based on Sterman's system dynamic modeling (SDM) process. Firstly, we determined the main variables affecting bed distribution using a mixed qualitative and quantitative study which includes scoping review, expert panel, Delphi, and DANP. Then, dynamic hypotheses were designed. Subsequently, we held several expert panels for designing the causal and stock-flow models, formulating and testing a simulation model, as well as developing various scenarios and policies. Results Dynamic modeling process resulted in four scenarios. All of the scenarios predicted a shortage of national hospital beds over a 20-year time horizon. Then, four policies were developed based on the changes in the number of beds and capacity of home care services; finally, the optimal policy was determined. Conclusions Due to the high cost of setting up hospital beds, developing and supporting cost-effective home care services, strengthening the insurance coverage of these services, and improving the quantity and quality of community care, considering the real needs of the community could be considered as an optimal option for the future of the city.

Background The social participation (SP) of the elderly is one of the factors that contribute to the improvement of their well-being. SP, one of the most important factors of active ageing, is mainly influenced by a number of facilitating or inhibiting factors. Aims This study aimed to identify the factors that prevent and facilitate the SP of the elderly population in Iran. Methods A cross-sectional study carried out in Shiraz, southern Iran in 2021. Participants were selected using a convenience sampling method. Shiraz is divided into 11 districts and the largest park in each district is selected for data gathering. The questionnaires were completed by 612 people aged over 60. Data were collected using the Canadian Elderly Survey Project scale and a health-related lifestyle questionnaire and were analyzed using t-test, ANOVA, Pearson’s correlation, and ANCOVA. Results The mean SP score of the elderly in Shiraz was 24.2 out of 60, which is below the midpoint. The results of the covariance analysis revealed that the SP had a significant relationship with the experience of physician consultation, cost barriers, age, marital status, income level, and education level (P < 0.001). Moreover, the results of Pearson correlation revealed a significant correlation between SP and different dimensions of health-oriented activities (< 0.001). Conclusions This study revealed that the main barriers to older people’s participation in health-related activities are cost and access barriers, such as transportation issues. Moreover, higher income level and higher educational attainment have been recognized as the main facilitators of SP in the elderly. In this regard, it can be suggested to apply a combination of health promotion strategies, financial support programs, and development of optimal transportation infrastructure to increase the SP of the elderly.