Purpose: This paper examines the relative predictive ability of earnings, cash flow from operations as reported in the cash flow statement, and two traditional measures of cash flows (i.e. earnings plus depreciation and amortisation expense, and working capital from operations) in forecasting future cash flows for Australian companies. Further, an empirical investigation of the extent to which firm size, as a contextual factor, influences the predictability of earnings and cash flow from operations is presented. Methodology: Our sample includes 323 companies listed on the Australian Stock Exchange between 1992 and 2004 (3,512 firm-years). We employ the ordinary least squares and fixedeffects approaches to estimate our regression models. To evaluate the forecasting performance of the regression models, both within-sample and out-of-sample forecasting tests are employed. Findings: We provide evidence that reported cash flow from operations has more power in predicting future cash flows than earnings and traditional cash flow measures. Further, the predictability of both earnings and cash flow from operations significantly increases with firm size. However, the superiority of cash flow from operations to earnings in predicting future cash flows is robust across small, medium and large firms.

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Focusing only on operating accruals in accrual-based studies results in a loss of information and noisy measures of both accrual and cash flow components of earnings. Thus, we examine the relative importance of working capital accruals, non-current operating accruals, and financing accruals with regard to future cash flows from operations (CFO). Using Australian data, we provide evidence that both working capital and non-current operating accruals are important for explaining future CFO but that the contribution of financing accruals is not significant. Moreover, the asset component of accruals plays a more important role in explaining future CFO than the liability component.

Based on pre-IFRS data from Australia, we provide further evidence that disaggregating operating cash flow into its components enhances the predictive ability of aggregate operating cash flow in forecasting future cash flows. We also find that cash received from customers and cash paid to suppliers and employees complement each other in enhancing the overall predictive ability of cash flow components. The results are robust to a battery of sensitivity tests, including control for industry membership, firm size, profitability, negative cash flows, and the length of the operating cash cycle. Our results contribute to the policy debate as to whether reporting of the direct method cash flow statement should be mandatory.

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