Background. It is highly cost effective to detect a seasonal trend in tuberculosis in order to optimize disease control and intervention. Although seasonal variation of tuberculosis has been reported from different parts of the world, no definite and consistent pattern has been observed. Therefore, the study was designed to find the seasonal variation of tuberculosis in Delhi, India. Methods. Retrospective record based study was undertaken in a Directly Observed Treatment Short course (DOTS) centre located in the south district of Delhi. Six-year data from January 2007 to December 2012 was analyzed. Expert modeler of SPSS ver. 21 software was used to fit the best suitable model for the time series data. Results. Autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) at lag 12 show significant peak suggesting seasonal component of the TB series. Seasonal adjusted factor (SAF) showed peak seasonal variation from March to May. Univariate model by expert modeler in the SPSS showed that Winter's multiplicative model could best predict the time series data with 69.8% variability. The forecast shows declining trend with seasonality. Conclusion. A seasonal pattern and declining trend with variable amplitudes of fluctuation were observed in the incidence of tuberculosis.
The neonatal mortality rate in India is amongst the highest in the world and skewed towards rural areas. Nonavailability of trained manpower along with poor healthcare infrastructure is one of the major hurdles in ensuring quality neonatal care. We reviewed case studies and relevant literature from low and middle income countries and documented alternative strategies that have proved to be favourable in improving neonatal health. The authors reiterate the fact that recruiting and retaining trained manpower in rural areas by all means is essential to improve the quality of neonatal care services. Besides this, other strategies such as training of local rural healthcare providers and traditional midwives, promoting home-based newborn care, and creating community awareness and mobilization also hold enough potential to influence the neonatal health positively and efforts should be made to implement them on a larger scale. More research is demanded for innovations such as “m-health” and public-private partnerships as they have been shown to offer potential in terms of improving the standards of care. The above proposed strategy is likely to reduce morbidity among neonatal survivors as well.
The study examines family characteristics that put adolescent girls at increased risk of abuse, mainly physical, sexual and emotional abuse and neglect. Stratified random sampling was done among classes 7th to 12th of government girls' schools of a semi-urban area of Delhi, and a total of 1060 adolescent girls participated. Majority were in mid-adolescence. Approximately 70% study subjects faced at least one form of maltreatment. Physical abuse was faced by 42.6%, sexual abuse by 26.6%, emotional abuse by 37.9% and neglect by 40.1% of study subjects. The most frequent perpetrator of physical and emotional abuse was mother, and of sexual abuse were friends, relatives or neighbours. No or low education of father increased odds of physical and emotional abuse, while odds of physical abuse and neglect were lower if mothers were housewives. Excessive arguments between parents and history of maltreatment in parents increased odds of child maltreatment in study subjects.
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