Mortality is a continuous force of attrition, tending to reduce the population, a prime negative force in the balance of vital processes (Bhasin and Nag, 2004). Sample Registration System (SRS) serves as the only source of annual data on vital events on a full scale from 1969-70 in India. Few studies have examined the trends and patterns of mortality across time and regions in India (Preston and Bhat, 1984). The Under 5 Mortality Rates (U5MR) can be seen to decrease by more than half from 1970 to 2017 but in contrast little is known about the mortality patterns of the older children (5-9) and young adolescents (10-14), and not many studies have been done on their changing trends (Masquelier et al., 2018). Using the annual data for the 5-14 age, the trend of decline in the mortality patterns is studied from 1970 to 2013. The linear trend in the time series plot suggests analysis using time series models AR(p), MA(q), ARMA(p,q), Box- Jenkins ARIMA(p,d,q) and Random Walk with drift models to get the best fit to the trend of the data. The order of the time series models have been calculated by studying the ACF, PACF plots and the coefficients have been derived using the Yule-Walker equation matrix. An in-sample forecast of the years 2014-17 are taken. The Mean Squared Error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as a measure of accuracy is used to determine the best fit model. ARIMA(3,1,1) produced lower values making it the best-fit model. Out-of-sample forecasting was done for 2018-2025. The forecast value shows that at the current trend, India would have 0.03 deaths per 1000 population in the 5-14 age group in 2025 showing that the government’s policies and health care interventions towards realization of the MDG4 goal is working positively.

Background: The nutritional status of a population has well-established, profound health effects across the lifecycle and is closely connected with cognitive and social development. Tackling malnutrition is a global concern as it is the single largest risk factor affecting the burden of disease estimates worldwide. The tribal population in India is more vulnerable to malnutrition and related health problems under severe socio-economic stress. Objective: This study determines the prevalence of nutritional status among Schedule Tribe Indian women by states and several background characteristics. It also tries to examine the socio-economic differentials in nutritional status among those women. Methods: The data is taken from the 4 th round of National Family Health Survey (NFHS 4) conducted by the International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai (2015-2016). Body Mass Index (BMI) was computed and recoded according to the specification of the World Health Organization (WHO). Bivariate analysis and multinomial logistic regression were used to assess the effects of socio-economic characteristics.Results: The overall prevalence of underweight among schedule tribe females is 31.7% and the prevalence of overweight/obese is 10.1%. From the west region most of the tribal women are found to be underweight. Scheduled Tribe women belonging to the urban area are found more prone to be overweight. The factors that are protective against being underweight are them being in older ages, having higher years of education, being married and being from households of higher wealth index. Conclusion:Although the prevalence of underweight is higher among tribal women than the women from the general population, the majority of the study population are found to be of normal BMI. In some of the states like Nagaland, Mizoram and Manipur, the prevalence of overweight tribal women exceeds the number of underweight which slightly indicates towards the dual burden of malnutrition.

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