To date, non-pharmacological interventions (NPI) have been the mainstay for controlling the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. While NPIs are effective in preventing health systems overload, these long-term measures are likely to have significant adverse economic consequences. Therefore, many countries are currently considering to lift the NPIs-increasing the likelihood of disease resurgence. In this regard, dynamic NPIs, with intervals of relaxed social distancing, may provide a more suitable alternative. However, the ideal frequency and duration of intermittent NPIs, and the ideal "break" when interventions can be temporarily relaxed, remain uncertain, especially in resource-poor settings. We employed a multivariate prediction model, based on up-to-date transmission and clinical parameters, to simulate outbreak trajectories in 16 countries, from diverse regions and economic categories. In each country, we then modelled the impacts on intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and deaths over an 18-month period for following scenarios: (1) no intervention, (2) consecutive cycles of mitigation measures followed by a relaxation period, and (3) consecutive cycles of suppression measures followed by a relaxation period. We defined these dynamic interventions based on reduction of the mean reproduction number during each cycle, assuming a basic reproduction number (R 0) of 2.2 for no intervention, and subsequent effective reproduction numbers (R) of 0.8 and 0.5 for illustrative dynamic mitigation and suppression interventions, respectively. We found that dynamic cycles of 50-day mitigation followed by a 30-day relaxation reduced transmission, however, were unsuccessful in lowering ICU hospitalizations below manageable limits. By contrast, dynamic cycles of 50-day suppression followed by a 30-day relaxation kept the ICU demands below the national capacities. Additionally, we estimated that a significant number of new infections and deaths, especially in resource-poor countries, would be averted if these dynamic suppression measures were kept in place over an 18-month period. This multi-country analysis demonstrates that intermittent reductions of R below 1 through a potential combination of suppression interventions and relaxation can be an effective strategy for COVID-19 pandemic control. Such a "schedule" of social distancing might be particularly relevant to low-income countries, where a single, prolonged suppression intervention is unsustainable. Efficient implementation of dynamic suppression interventions, therefore, confers a pragmatic option to: (1) prevent critical care overload and deaths, (2) gain time to develop preventive and clinical measures, and (3) reduce economic hardship globally.

BackgroundIncreasing prevalence of pre-diabetes is an emerging public health problem. Decrease in sweet taste sensitivity which can lead to an increase in sugar intake might be a factor driving them to overt diabetes. The aim of the present study was to assess the sweet taste sensitivity in pre-diabetics in comparison with diabetics and with normoglycemic controls.MethodsForty pre-diabetics, 40 diabetics and 34 normoglycemic controls were studied. The three groups were matched for age, sex and BMI. The division into groups was based on their glycated hemoglobin levels. The detection and recognition thresholds were determined by the multiple forced-choice method using sucrose solutions prepared in ¼ log dilutions. The intensities of perceived sensations for a series of suprathreshold concentrations of sucrose solutions prepared in ½ log dilution were determined by rating on a visual analogue scale. Statistical analyses were performed by SPSS version 21.ResultsThe mean (SD) detection thresholds of diabetic, pre-diabetic and normoglycemic groups were 0.025 (0.01), 0.018 (0.01) and 0.015 (0.01) respectively with a significant increase in diabetic group compared to normoglycemic group (p = 0.03). The mean recognition thresholds were not different among the three groups. When the intensity ratings for suprathreshold concentrations of sucrose were compared between the three groups, for all suprathreshold concentrations tested, significant differences were observed across the four concentrations (p < 0.001) and between groups in suprathreshold ratings (p < 0.05). Further analysis showed that the diabetic group had significantly lower suprathreshold ratings than the normoglycemic group (p < 0.001). Although all mean suprathreshold intensity ratings of the pre-diabetic group were between the normoglycemic and diabetic groups, the differences were not significant.ConclusionsThis is the first study to demonstrate the sweet taste sensitivity in pre-diabetics. The findings of the present study do not support the hypothesis of decreased sweet taste sensitivity of pre-diabetics. However, the results confirm the previous findings of blunted taste response in diabetics. The observation of pre-diabetics having intermediate values for all taste thresholds and suprathreshold ratings warrants a future investigation with a larger pre-diabetic sample recruited with more specific screening criteria to test this hypothesis further.

BackgroundSri Lanka has been affected by epidemics of dengue infections for many decades and the incidence and severity of dengue infections have been rising each year. Therefore, we investigated the age stratified seroprevalence of dengue infections in order to facilitate future dengue vaccine strategies. In addition, since the symptomatic dengue infections have increased during the past few decades, we also investigated the possible association with Japanese Encephalitis Virus (JEV) antibody seropositivity with symptomatic dengue in a community cohort in Sri Lanka.Methods1689 healthy individuals who were attending a primary health care facility were recruited. Dengue and JEV antibody status was determined in all individuals and JEV vaccination status was recorded.Results1152/1689 (68.2%) individuals were seropositive for dengue and only 133/1152 (11.5%) of them had been hospitalized to due to dengue. A significant and positive correlation was observed for dengue antibody seropositivity and age in children (Spearmans R = 0.84, p = 0.002) and in adults (Spearmans R = 0.96, p = 0.004). We observed a significant rise in the age stratified seroprevalence rates in children over a period of 12 years. For instance, in year 2003 the annual seroconversion rate was 1.5% per annum, which had risen to 3.79% per annum by 2014. We also found that both adults (p<0.001) and in children (p = 0.03) who were hospitalized due to dengue were more likely to be seropositive for JEV antibodies. However, 244 (91.4%) of adults who were seropositive for JEV had not had the JEV vaccine.ConclusionsDengue seroprevalence rates have risen significantly over the last 12 years in Sri Lanka, possibly due to increased transmission. As individuals who were hospitalized due to dengue were more likely to be seropositive for JEV, the possibility of cross-reactive assays and/or of JEV infection on immunity to the DENV and clinical disease severity should be further investigated.

ObjectiveTo identify the socio demographic, life style and foot examination related predictors of diabetic foot and leg ulcers with a view to develop a screening tool appropriate for the use in an outpatient setting.Research design and methodsThis cross sectional study included type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) patients; 88 subjects with leg and foot ulcers and 80 non ulcer controls. Socio demographic data and life style factors were documented. Foot was examined for skin changes and structural abnormalities. Distal peripheral neuropathy was assessed by pressure sense, vibration sense and joint position sense. Multivariate analysis by logistic regression was used to determine the significant predictors in screening for foot ulcers.ResultsEducation of grade 6 and below (OR - 1.41, 95% CI; 1.03 - 4.68), low income (OR - 23.3, 95% CI; 1.5 - 34.0), impaired vibration sense (OR - 24.79, 95% CI; 9.3 - 66.2), abnormal monofilament test on first (OR - 1.69, 95% CI; 1.36 - 16.6), third (OR - 3.4, 95% CI; 1.1 - 10.6) and fifth (OR - 1.8, 95% CI; 1.61- 12.6) toes are found to be predictors of increased risk whereas incidental diagnosis of DM (OR - 0.03, 95% CI; 0.003 - 0.28), wearing covered shoes (OR - 0.003, 95% CI; 0.00 - 0.28), presence of normal skin color (OR - 0.01, 95% CI; 0.001 - 0.14) and normal monofilament test on first metatarsal head (OR - 0.10, 95% CI; 0.00 - 0.67) are protective factors for ulcers.ConclusionsTen independent risk and protective factors identified in this study are proposed as a simple screening tool to predict the risk of developing leg and foot ulcers in patients with DM.

BackgroundAlthough antibody responses to dengue virus (DENV) in naturally infected individuals have been extensively studied, the functionality of DENV specific memory T cell responses in relation to clinical disease severity is incompletely understood.Methodology/Principal findingsUsing ex vivo IFNγ ELISpot assays, and by determining cytokines produced in ELISpot supernatants, we investigated the functionality of DENV-specific memory T cell responses in a large cohort of individuals from Sri Lanka (n=338), who were naturally infected and were either hospitalized due to dengue or had mild or sub clinical dengue infection. We found that T cells of individuals with both past mild or sub clinical dengue infection and who were hospitalized produced multiple cytokines when stimulated with DENV-NS3 peptides. However, while DENV-NS3 specific T cells of those with mild/sub clinical dengue infection were more likely to produce only granzyme B (p=0.02), those who were hospitalized were more likely to produce both TNFα and IFNγ (p=0.03) or TNFα alone.We have also investigated the usefulness of a novel T cell based assay, which can be used to determine the past infecting DENV serotype. 92.4% of DENV seropositive individuals responded to at least one DENV serotype of this assay and none of the seronegatives responded. Individuals who were seronegative, but had received the Japanese encephalitis vaccine too made no responses, suggesting that the peptides used in this assay did not cross react with the Japanese encephalitis virus.Conclusions/significanceThe types of cytokines produced by DENV-specific memory T cells appear to influence the outcome of clinical disease severity. The novel T cell based assay, is likely to be useful in determining the past infecting DENV serotype in immune-epidemiological studies and also in dengue vaccine trials.