Global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions seriously threatens a region's sustainable environmental and socioeconomic development. Promoting industrial restructuring and strengthening technological innovation have become an important path to achieving pollution and carbon reduction as well as the green transformation of economic structure. This paper explored the mechanism of the mediating effect of technological innovation on industrial restructuring and carbon reduction while accounting for the direct effect of industrial restructuring on carbon emissions. Then, based on China's provincial panel data from 2001 to 2019, we estimated the carbon emission intensity using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s methods and analyzed its spatiotemporal evolution characteristics. Finally, we constructed a fixed-effect model and a mediating effect model to empirically analyze how industrial restructuring and technological innovation affect carbon emission intensity. The results are as follows: (1) From 2001 to 2019, China's carbon emission intensity showed a continuous downward trend, with a pronounced convergence trend; there were obvious differences in carbon emission intensity between eastern, central, and western regions (western region > central region > eastern region) due to the unbalanced industrial structure. (2) In terms of direct effects, industrial restructuring can significantly reduce carbon emission intensity. The intensity of the effect is inversely proportional to the level of industrial restructuring, and the results of sub-regional tests are similar. Nevertheless, there is an obvious regional difference in the size of the carbon emission reduction effect of industrial restructuring in the east, central, and western regions. (3) In terms of indirect effects, industrial restructuring can reduce carbon emission intensity by enhancing technological innovation, and it acts as a mediating variable in the process of industrial restructuring to reduce carbon emission. Finally, we put forward recommendations for promoting industrial restructuring, strengthening green technological innovation, and properly formulating carbon reduction measures to provide a reference for countries and regions to achieve the goals of carbon neutrality, carbon peaking, and high-quality economic development.

Industrial structure and regional innovation have a significant impact on emissions. This study explores, from the multivariate coupling and spatial perspectives, the degree of coupling coordination between three factors: industrial structure, carbon emissions, and regional innovation of 97 counties in Shandong Province, China from 2000 to 2017. On the basis of global spatial autocorrelation and cold and hot spots, this article analyzes the spatial characteristics and aggregation effects of coupled and coordinated development within each region. The results are as follows. (1) The coupling degree between carbon emissions, industrial structure, and regional innovation in these counties fluctuated upward from 2000 to 2017. Coupling coordination progressed from low coordination to basic coordination. Regional differences in coupling coordination degree are evident, showing a stepped spatial distribution pattern with high levels in the east and low levels in the west. (2) During the study period, the coupling coordination showed a positive correlation in spatial distribution. Moran’s I varies from 0.057 to 0.305 on a global basis. Spatial clustering is characterized by agglomeration of cold spots and hot spots. (3) The coupling coordination exhibited significant spatial differentiation. The hot spots were distributed in the eastern part, while the cold spots were located in the western part. The results of this study suggest that the counties in Shandong Province should promote industrial structure upgrades and enhance regional innovation to reduce carbon emissions.

Human activities and land transformation are important factors in the growth of carbon emissions. In recent years, construction land for urban use in China has expanded rapidly. At the same time, carbon emissions in China are among the highest in the world. However, little is known about the relationship between the two factors. This study seeks to estimate the carbon emissions and carbon sequestrations of various types of land based on the land cover data of 137 county-level administrative regions in Shandong Province, China, from 2000 to 2020.The study estimated the carbon emissions for energy consumption using energy consumption data and night-time light images, hence, net carbon emissions. The Tapio decoupling coefficient was used to analyze the decoupling between the net carbon emissions and construction land, and where the model for the decoupling effort was constructed to explore the driving factors of decoupling. The results showed that net carbon emissions in Shandong Province continued to increase, and the areas with high carbon emissions were concentrated primarily in specific districts of the province. The relationship between net carbon emissions and construction land evolved from an expansive negative decoupling type to a strong negative decoupling type. Spatially, most areas in the province featured an expansive negative decoupling, but the areas with a strong negative decoupling have gradually increased. The intensive rate of land use and efficiencies in technological innovation have restrained carbon emissions, and they have contributed to an ideal decoupling situation. Although the intensity of carbon emission and the size of the population have restrained carbon emissions, efforts towards decoupling have faded. The degree of land use has facilitated carbon emissions, and in recent years, efforts have been made to achieve an ideal decoupling. The method of estimation of net carbon emissions devised in this research can lend itself to studies on other regions, and the conclusions provide a reference for China, going forward, to balance urbanization and carbon emissions.