Landslide disaster that threatened over 100 people in Zhaoqing, China, were taken as samples. Sixteen environmental factors were selected, including altitude, slope degree, slope aspect, lithology, soil texture, normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI), average annual rainfall, distance to developed land, and distance to roads. The Maximum Entropy model was employed for simulation analysis of landslides. The results suggest that: NDVI, lithology, distance to rivers, distance to roads, rainfall variance, and altitude are the leading environmental factors that affect landslide disasters. Of the factors taken into consideration, distance to developed land contributes as much as 43.6% of the AUC (area under the curve) value of the landslide distribution model. In fact, this factor became the absolute leading variable over even the NDVI, indicating that high-threat landslide disasters in the study area are highly correlated with human activities. The closer the landslide location was to developed land, rivers, and roads, the more likely a landslide was to occur. Using the MaxEnt model, the highthreat landslide in Zhaoqing can be favourably simulated. The AUC of the model's prediction precision reached 0.769 without distance to developed land; whereas, the AUC of the model's precision reached 0.845 with distance to developed land taken into account.

No abstract

No abstract

Controlled by the characteristics of regional geological environment, the mechanism of slope runoff and hydrological processes under severe rainfall conditions in South China is fundamentally different from other regions. Therefore, the formation mechanism of shallow landslides induced by heavy precipitation has unique regional characteristics. In this study, by analyzing the response mechanism of slopes in South China to heavy rainfall, the slope unit was selected as the basic unit for early warning, and the concept of slope physical mechanism model (SINMAP) was used for reference and expansion. Through the introduction of heavy rainfall impact coefficients and coupled hydrological models and landslide stability analysis models, Shallow landslide warning model suitable for the geological environment in South China was established. Taking Song gang River as a case, an early warning process calculation was carried out. The results show that the model calculation process is suitable for the small watershed area and the calculation results of the model are ideal. Construct a landslide space early warning model and explore the critical rainfall threshold for inducing landslides to provide a scientific basis for warning and prevention of landslide hazards. Keywords：SINMAP；South China；Heavy Rainfall；Shallow Landslide；Early Warning摘要 受区域地质环境特征控制，华南地区强 降雨条件下斜坡产流机制和水文过程与其 他地区有本质性区别，因此强降水诱发的浅 层滑坡的形成机理具有独特的区域特色。本 研究通过分析华南地区斜坡对于暴雨的响 应机制，选用斜坡单元为预警基本单元，借 鉴和扩展斜坡物理机制模型(SINMAP)的 理念，通过引入暴雨影响系数和耦合水文模 型和滑坡稳定性分析模型，建立了适合华南 地区地质环境特征的浅层滑坡预警理论模 034_RAC_052.indd 218

Based on the mountain torrent disaster data, a GIS database was established to analyze the distribution characteristics of mountain torrent disasters in Guangdong province, China. Factors