Background: Breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer and leading cause of cancer death among women worldwide but has patterns and trends which vary in different countries. This study aimed to evaluate the global patterns of breast cancer incidence and mortality and analyze its temporal trends for breast cancer prevention and control.Methods: Breast cancer incidence and mortality data in 2020 were obtained from the GLOBOCAN online database. Continued data from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Time Trends, the International Agency for Research on cancer mortality and China National Central Cancer Registry were used to analyze the time trends from 2000 to 2015 through Joinpoint regression, and annual average percent changes of breast cancer incidence and mortality were calculated. Association between Human Development Index and breast cancer incidence and mortality were estimated by linear regression. Results: There were approximately 2.3 million new breast cancer cases and 685,000 breast cancer deaths worldwide in 2020. Its incidence and mortality varied among countries, with the age-standardized incidence ranging from the highest of 112.3 per 100,000 population in Belgium to the lowest of 35.8 per 100,000 population in Iran, and the age-standardized mortality from the highest of 41.

Objective: Breast cancer was the most common cancer and the fifth cause of cancer deaths among women in China in 2015. The evaluation of the long-term incidence and mortality trends and the prediction of the future burden of breast cancer could provide valuable information for developing prevention and control strategies. Methods: The burden of breast cancer in China in 2015 was estimated by using qualified data from 368 cancer registries from the National Central Cancer Registry. Incident cases and deaths in 22 cancer registries were used to assess the time trends from 2000 to 2015. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to project the burden of breast cancer to 2030. Results: Approximately 303,600 new cases of breast cancer (205,100 from urban areas and 98,500 from rural areas) and 70,400 breast cancer deaths (45,100 from urban areas and 24,500 from rural areas) occurred in China in 2015. Urban regions of China had the highest incidence and mortality rates. The most common histological subtype of breast cancer was invasive ductal carcinoma, followed by invasive lobular carcinoma. The age-standardized incidence and mortality rates increased by 3.3% and 1.0% per year during 2000-2015, and were projected to increase by more than 11% until 2030. Changes in risk and demographic factors between 2015 and 2030 in cases are predicted to increase by approximately 13.3% and 22.9%, whereas deaths are predicted to increase by 13.1% and 40.9%, respectively. Conclusions: The incidence and mortality of breast cancer continue to increase in China. There are no signs that this trend will stop by 2030, particularly in rural areas. Effective breast cancer prevention strategies are therefore urgently needed in China.

ObjectivesTo provide an up-to-date overview of long-term trends of liver cancer mortality and evaluate the effects attributable to age, period and cohort in Chinese population stratified by gender and urban/rural areas.MethodsPopulation and liver cancer mortality data were obtained based on the Disease Surveillance Points in China from 1991 to 2014. To examine the time trends of liver cancer mortality by gender in urban and rural areas in China, Joinpoint analysis was used to estimate the annual per cent change. The intrinsic estimator, a method of age-period-cohort analysis to estimate age, period and cohort effects simultaneously, was used to analyse the underlying mechanisms for liver cancer mortality trends in the aforementioned four groups.ResultsWe observed a significant decline in liver cancer mortality for urban men (average annual per cent change (AAPC)=−1.1%, P<0.05) and urban women (AAPC=−1.4%, P<0.05), while the liver cancer mortality remained stable for rural men (AAPC=−0.1%, P>0.05) and rural women (AAPC=−0.9%, P>0.05). Compared with the 15–19 age group, the liver cancer mortality risk of the 85 and above age group increased 65 and 42 times for urban and rural men, and 102 and 70 times for urban and rural women. From the 1990–1994 period to the 2005–2009 period, the risk increased 56% and 92% for urban and rural men, and 30% and 74% for urban and rural women. Compared with period and cohort effects, age effects were the most influential factor in liver cancer mortality.ConclusionsAs the status of ageing population in China gets worse, the burden caused by liver cancer mortality could still be a great challenge for China in the future. The disparity of liver cancer mortality trends between urban and rural residents can be attributed to period effects, referring to the unequal medical levels and resources between urban and rural areas.

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Background Gastric and esophageal cancer (GEC) have made a great contribution to the cancer burden in China. This study aims to report GEC incidence and mortality trends in 2000–2015 and their predictions to 2030. Methods We collected GEC data from 22 cancer registries for Joinpoint temporal trend analysis between 2000 and 2015 and average annual percent change was calculated. Based on the historical changes, combined with the 2015 GEC national incidence and mortality rate, the rate from 2016 to 2030 was predicted grouped by sex and age. The crude rate, standardized rate, and cumulative rate were calculated. The number of cases were obtained by multiplying the United Nations' World Population Prospects and the predicted rate of corresponding years. Attribution changes between 2015 and 2030 were apportioned into demographics and risk factors. Results There were decreasing trends of age‐standardized incidence rate world (ASIRW) and age‐standardized mortality rate world (ASMRW) during 2000–2015 in China ( p < 0.05), the decline was more significant for the age group of 40–49 years in men and the age group of 50–59 years in women. It was predicted that in 2030, about 549,724 new cases and 394,576 deaths of GEC would occur in China. Compared with 2015, the numbers of new GEC cases and deaths in 2030 decreased by 15.24% and 17.62%, respectively. From 2020 to 2030, GEC ASIRW and ASMRW were predicted to decline from 24.98 to 17.47 and from 17.41 to 11.82 per 100,000, respectively. The number of new cases decreased by about 15.24% with changing demographic (44.48%) and risk (−59.72%) and the number of deaths decreased by about 17.62% with changing demographic (47.18%) and risk (−64.80%). Conclusions Although GEC incidence and mortality rates showed downward trends, the disease burden remains heavy in China. The current prevention and control strategy are effective which need to be carried on.