Milk supply response by dairy farmers in Delaware was analyzed employing distributed lag price structures for number of milk cows and milk production per cow. A polynominal distributed lag model is fitted to quarterly data with deflated prices for the period 1966 to 1978. The variations in the number of milk cows is explained by about 98 percent. Farmers react positively to milk prices after 1–2 years, while wages and feed prices have a negative impact on cow numbers. Milk production per cow shows positive adjustments to milk prices after 6 to 15 months. Technology and feed prices influence also milk production While the short-run price elasticity of milk production is only .2, the long-run aggregate elasticity grows to 2.8 percent. Intermediate-run projections of milk supply were also performed with the model.
Environmentalists, farmers, legislators, and researchers are interested in reduced soil erosion, water quality protection, reduced use of purchased inputs, and greater farm net returns. This paper determines if these are simultaneously obtainable goals on the Texas High Plains. A crop simulation model is used to estimate crop yield and soil erosion for each of 14 alternative dryland farming systems that include cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.), wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), and grain sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench.]. A crop budget generator is then used to estimate costs and returns from each of the cropping systems. Reduced till continuous cotton resulted in slightly higher net returns than conventional till cotton while using less diesel fuel. Adding wheat as a winter cover crop to a reduced till continuous cotton system reduced soil erosion by approximately 5 ton/acre/yr and also reduced net returns by $16/acre due to increased purchase of inputs.
This study evaluated implications of increased bollworm problems in a 20-county area of the Texas High Plains relative to cotton yields and economic impact. Results did not indicate a serious effect of bollworms upon lint yield when insecticides were used for control. However, estimated annual reduction in farmer profit due to the bollworm for 1979-81 was over $30 million. Yields were estimated to decline about 300,000 bales without insecticide use and about 30,000 bales with insecticide use. This decline suggests potentially serious implications for the comparative economic position of cotton in this region if insecticide resistance were to develop among insect pests.
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