Data from longitudinal analyses can be useful in the design and implementation of control strategies.

Background:With its tropical rainforest climate, rapid urbanization, and changing demography and ecology, Singapore experiences endemic dengue; the last large outbreak in 2013 culminated in 22,170 cases. In the absence of a vaccine on the market, vector control is the key approach for prevention.Objectives:We sought to forecast the evolution of dengue epidemics in Singapore to provide early warning of outbreaks and to facilitate the public health response to moderate an impending outbreak.Methods:We developed a set of statistical models using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) methods to forecast the weekly incidence of dengue notifications over a 3-month time horizon. This forecasting tool used a variety of data streams and was updated weekly, including recent case data, meteorological data, vector surveillance data, and population-based national statistics. The forecasting methodology was compared with alternative approaches that have been proposed to model dengue case data (seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average and step-down linear regression) by fielding them on the 2013 dengue epidemic, the largest on record in Singapore.Results:Operationally useful forecasts were obtained at a 3-month lag using the LASSO-derived models. Based on the mean average percentage error, the LASSO approach provided more accurate forecasts than the other methods we assessed. We demonstrate its utility in Singapore’s dengue control program by providing a forecast of the 2013 outbreak for advance preparation of outbreak response.Conclusions:Statistical models built using machine learning methods such as LASSO have the potential to markedly improve forecasting techniques for recurrent infectious disease outbreaks such as dengue.Citation:Shi Y, Liu X, Kok SY, Rajarethinam J, Liang S, Yap G, Chong CS, Lee KS, Tan SS, Chin CK, Lo A, Kong W, Ng LC, Cook AR. 2016. Three-month real-time dengue forecast models: an early warning system for outbreak alerts and policy decision support in Singapore. Environ Health Perspect 124:1369–1375; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1509981

Dengue fever, a vector-borne disease, has caused tremendous burden to countries in the tropics and sub tropics. Over the past 20 years, dengue epidemics have become more widespread, severe and frequent. This study aims to understand the dynamics of dengue viruses in cosmopolitan Singapore. Envelope protein gene sequences of all four dengue serotypes (DENV-1-DENV-4) obtained from human sera in Singapore (2008-2010) revealed that constant viral introductions and in situ evolution contribute to viral diversity in Singapore and play important roles in shaping the epidemiology of dengue in the island state. The diversity of dengue viruses reported here could be a reflection of the on-going dengue situation in the region given Singapore's location in a dengue hyperendemic region and its role as the regional hub for travels and trade. Though cosmopolitan genotype of DENV-2 has remained as the predominant strain circulating in Singapore, we uncovered evidence of in situ evolution which could possibly result in viruses with improved fitness. While we have previously shown that a switch in the predominant dengue serotype could serve as a warning for an impending outbreak, our current data shows that a replacement of a predominant viral clade, even in the absence of a switch in predominant serotype, could signal a possible increase in dengue transmission. The circulating dengue viruses in Singapore are highly diverse, a situation which could offer ample opportunities for selection of strains of higher fitness, thus increasing the risk of outbreaks despite a low Aedes population.

one cases and 71 controls were interviewed. Most cases presented with diarrhoea (71%) and vomiting (63%).Vibrio cholerae was confirmed in six of 16 samples. The peak of the epidemic period occurred on January 4, 2012. Drinking water from the Luangano river (OR 4.9, CI 1.7-13.9), eating at an event five days before contracting the disease (OR 8.9; CI 3.3-24.1), no use of latrine (OR 7.1, CI 3.2-15.5) were independent factors associated for contracting cholera in Lukapa. Conclusion:The cholera outbreak was spread through a common source -the contaminated river -and propagated from person to person. Control measures carried out included health promotion campaigns, chlorination of drinking water, distribution of oral rehydration salts, and setting up of water tanks in the community.