of counties in the United States saw net decreases in surface water withdrawals (Figure 1). Decreases were especially widespread throughout the Great Plains. The decrease came despite population increases, in large part due to structural changes in the U.S. economy that favored less water-intensive industries and broad efficiency gains in household appliances, thermoelectric power generation, and agriculture irrigation.National trends, however, mask challenges in many regions of the U.S. In some places (e.g., in Nevada and throughout the Mississippi River basin), decreases in surface water use were more than offset by increases in groundwater use, leading to net increases in total freshwater withdrawals. Other places have seen increasing rates of water shortages caused by mixes of socioeconomic and climate forces (Schewe et al., 2014;Warziniack & Brown, 2019). In 2018, over 1000 public water suppliers in Texas instituted water use restrictions in response to ongoing drought (Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, n.d.). A review by the Government Accountability Office found that 40 out of 50 state water managers expected water shortages to affect their state in the near term under what they describe as average conditions (U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), 2003).This study examines recent trends in freshwater use and makes projections for future freshwater use over the next 50 years. Projections are based on socioeconomic and climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5; IPCC, 2014). The scenario approach uses plausible

Colorado’s water supply is under threat due to climate change pressures and population growth, however Colorado has been recognized to have some of the most progressive water conservation programs in the country. Limiting outdoor water consumption is an increasingly popular approach to conserving water in semi-arid cities, yet in order to implement effective water reduction and conservation policies, more utilities and city managers need a firm understanding of the local drivers of outdoor water consumption. This research explores the drivers of outdoor water consumption in a semi-arid, medium-sized Colorado city that is projected to undergo significant population growth. We used a combination of correlation and linear regression analyses to identify the key descriptive variables that predict greater water consumption at the household scale. Some results were specific to the development patterns of this medium-sized city, where outdoor water use increased 7% for each additional mile (1.6 km) a household was located from the historic urban center. Similarly, more expensive homes used more water as well. Surprisingly, households with a higher ratio of vegetation cover to parcel size tended toward less water consumption. This result could be because parcels that are shaded by their tree canopy require less irrigation. We discuss these results to assist city managers and policymakers in creating water-efficient landscapes and provide information that can be leveraged to increase awareness for water conservation in a growing, semi-arid city.

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Research has shown that urban tree canopy (UTC) provides a multitude of ecosystem services to people in cities, yet the benefits and costs of trees are not always equitably distributed among residents and households. To support urban forest managers and sustainability planning, many studies have analyzed the relationships between UTC and various morphological and social variables. Most of these studies, however, focus on large cities like Baltimore, MD, Los Angeles, CA, and New York, NY. Yet, small and midsized cities are experiencing the most growth globally, often having more opportunity to alter management strategies and policies to conserve and/or increase canopy cover and other green infrastructure. Using both a linear and spatial regression approach, we analyzed the main drivers of UTC across census block groups in Fort Collins, CO, a midsize, semi-arid city projected to undergo significant population growth in the next 20-30 years. Results from Fort Collins indicated that block groups with older buildings and greater housing density contained more UTC, with 2.2% more canopy cover for every 10 years of building age and 4.1% more for every 10 houses per hectare. We also found that distributional inequities may already be developing within this midsized city, as block groups with more minority communities were associated with lower UTC. We compared the drivers of UTC in Fort Collins to other cities located in different climate regions, or biomes, and in various stages of urban development.  Based on these results, we suggested future urban forest management strategies for semi-arid cities like Fort Collins.