Purpose. The available nomograms used to predict acute pancreatitis (AP) are not comprehensive. We sought to investigate the effect of red blood cell distribution width (RDW)-albumin ratio (RA) on prognosis of patients with AP and develop a new nomogram to identify AP patients at high risk for mortality. Methods. We used data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV version 2.0 (MIMIC-IV v2.0). A total of 487 patients with acute pancreatitis were included. Patients enrolled in the study were randomly assigned to the training set and validation set at a 7 : 3 ratio. According to the 30-day mortality rate, the data were divided into a survival group and a death group. Multivariate logistic regression was used to establish a prognostic nomogram for predicting the 30-day mortality in AP patients. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curve, the net reclassification improvement (NRI), the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and a decision curve analysis (DCA) are used to verify the overall performance of the model. Results. Among 487 patients, 54 patients died (11.1%). 338 patients were assigned to the training cohort and 149 were assigned to the validation cohort. The multivariate analysis results showed that RA, age, heart rate, temperature, AST/ALT, BUN, hemoglobin, potassium, and bilirubin were independent risk factors. The prediction performance of the newly established nomogram was better than those of other common scoring systems (including SOFA, OASIS, and APSIII). The nomogram suggests that RA (OR = 1.706, 95% CI: 1.367–2.185) is the most significant laboratory test indicator influencing prognosis. Conclusion. The new nomogram incorporating RA performed well in predicting AP short-term mortality. A prospective study with a larger sample is needed to validate our findings.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
customersupport@researchsolutions.com
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.