Purpose: To develop a nomogram model for predicting local progress-free survival (LPFS) in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients treated with chemoradiotherapy. Methods: We collected the clinical data of ESCC patients treated with CCRT in our hospital. Eligible patients were randomly divided into training cohort and validation cohort. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) with COX regression was performed to select optimal radiomics features calculating Rad-score for predicting LPFS in the training cohort. The univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to identify the predictive clinical factors for developing a nomogram model. The C-index was used to assess the performance of the predictive model and calibration curve was used to evaluate the accuracy.Results: A total of 221 ESCC patients were included in our study, with 155 patients in training cohort and 66 patients in validation cohort. After LASSO COX regression analysis, seventeen radiomics features were selected to calculate Rad-score for predicting LPFS. The patients with a Rad-score≥0.1411 had high risk of local recurrence, and those with a Rad-score<0.1411 had low risk of local recurrence. Multivariate analysis showed that N stage, CR status and Rad-score were independent predictive factors for LPFS. A nomogram model was built based on the result of multivariate analysis. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.745 (95%CI: 0.7700 -0.790) in training cohort and 0.723(95%CI：0.654-0.791) in validation cohort. The 3-year LPFS rate predicted by the nomogram model was highly consistent with the actual 3-year LPFS rate both in the training cohort and the validation cohort.Conclusion: We developed and validated a prediction model based on radiomics features and clinical factors, which can be used to predict LPFS of patients after CCRT. This model is conducive to making individualized chemoradiotherapy strategy and providing scientific basis for subsequent intensive adjuvant therapy for ESCC patients.

Purpose: To develop and validate a nomogram model to predict complete response (CR) after concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients using pretreatment CT radiomic features. Methods: Data of patients diagnosed as ESCC and treated with CCRT in Shantou Central Hospital during the period from January 2013 to December 2015 were retrospectively collected. Eligible patients were included in this study and randomize divided into a training set and a validation set after successive screening. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) with logistic regression to select radiomics features calculating Rad-score in the training set. The logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the predictive clinical factors for developing a nomogram model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) was used to assess the performance of the predictive nomogram model and decision curve was used to analyze the impact of the nomogram model on clinical treatment decisions. Results: A total of 226 patients were included and randomly divided into two groups, 160 patients in training set and 66 patients in validation set. After LASSO analysis, seven radiomics features were screened out to develop a radiomics signature Rad-score. The AUC of Rad-score was 0.812 (95%CI: 0.742-0.869, p<0.001) in the training set and 0.744 (95%CI: 0.632-0.851, p=0.003) in the validation set. Multivariate analysis showed that Rad-score and clinical staging were independent predictors of CR status, with P values of 0.035 and 0.023, respectively. A nomogram model incorporating Rad-socre and clinical staging was developed and validated, with an AUC of 0.844 (95％CI: 0.779-0.897) in the training set and 0.807 (95％CI: 0.691-0.894) in the validation set．Delong test showed that the nomogram model was significantly superior to the clinical staging, with P<0.001 in the training set and P=0.026 in the validation set. The decision curve showed that the nomogram model was superior to the clinical staging when the risk threshold was greater than 25%. Conclusion: We developed and validated a nomogram model for predicting CR status of ESCC patients after CCRT. The nomogram model was combined radiomics signature Rad-score and clinical staging. This model provided us with an economical and simple method for evaluating the response of chemoradiotherapy for patients with ESCC.

Purpose To develop and validate a nomogram model to predict complete response (CR) after concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients using pretreatment CT radiomic features. Methods Data of patients diagnosed as ESCC and treated with CCRT in Shantou Central Hospital during the period from January 2013 to December 2015 were retrospectively collected. Eligible patients were included in this study and randomize divided into a training set and a validation set after successive screening. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) with logistic regression to select radiomics features calculating Rad-score in the training set. The logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the predictive clinical factors for developing a nomogram model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) was used to assess the performance of the predictive nomogram model and decision curve was used to analyze the impact of the nomogram model on clinical treatment decisions. Results A total of 226 patients were included and randomly divided into two groups, 160 patients in training set and 66 patients in validation set. After LASSO analysis, seven radiomics features were screened out to develop a radiomics signature Rad-score. The AUCs of Rad-score was 0.812 (95%CI: 0.742–0.869) in the training set and 0.744 (95%CI: 0.632–0.851) in the validation set. Multivariate analysis showed that Rad-score and clinical staging were independent predictors of CR status, with P values of 0.035 and 0.023, respectively. A nomogram model incorporating Rad-socre and clinical staging was developed and validated, with an AUC of 0.844 (95%CI: 0.779–0.897) in the training set and 0.807 (95༅CI: 0.691–0.894) in the validation set༎Delong test showed that the nomogram model was significantly superior to the clinical staging, with P < 0.001 in the training set and P = 0.026 in the validation set. The decision curve showed that the nomogram model was superior to the clinical staging when the risk threshold was greater than 25%. Conclusion We developed and validated a nomogram model for predicting CR status of ESCC patients after CCRT. The nomogram model was combined radiomics signature Rad-score and clinical staging. This model provided us with an economical and simple method for evaluating the response of chemoradiotherapy for patients with ESCC.