Ramsey and Hamilton's original experiment was valid.

Purpose The revised Tokuhashi score has been widely used to evaluate indications for surgery and predict survival in patients with metastatic spinal disease. Our aim was to analyse the actual survival time of patients treated for metastatic spinal cord compression (MSCC) in comparison with the predicted survival based on the revised Tokuhashi score. This would thereby allow us to determine the overall predictive value of this scoring system. Methods This study was a semi-prospective clinical study of all patients with MSCC presenting to our unit over 8 years-data from October 2003 to December 2009 were collected retrospectively and from December 2009, all data collected prospectively to October 2011. Patients were divided into three groups-Group 1 (Tokuhashi score 0-8, n = 84), Group 2 (Tokuhashi score 9-11, n = 83) and Group 3 (Tokuhashi score 12-15, n = 34). Data collected included demographic data, primary tumour histology, surgery type and complications, neurological outcome (Frankel grade) and survival. Results A total of 233 patients with MSCC were managed surgically in our unit during this time. Out of these complete data were available on 201 patients for analysis.Mean age of patients was 61 years (range 18-86; 127 M, 74 F). The primary tumour type was Breast (n = 29, 15 %), Haematological (n = 28, 14 %), Renal (n = 26, 13 %), Prostate (n = 26, 13 %), Lung (n = 23, 11 %), Gastro-intestinal (n = 11, 5 %), Sarcoma (n = 9, 4 %) and others (n = 49, 24 %). All patients included in the study had surgical intervention in the form of decompression and stabilisation. Posterior decompression and stabilisation was performed in 171 patients (with vertebrectomy in 31), combined anterior and posterior approaches were used in 18 patients and 12 had an anterior approach only. The overall complication rate was 19 % (39/201)-the most common being wound infection (n = 15, 8 %). There was no difference in the neurological outcome (Frankel grade) between Groups 1 and 2 (p = 0.34) or Groups 2 and 3 (p = 0.70). However, there was a significant difference between Groups 1 and 3 (p = 0.001), with Group 3 having a significantly better neurological outcome. Median survival was 93 days in Group 1, 229 days in Group 2 and 875 days in Group 3 (p = 0.001). The predictive value between the actual and predicted survival was 64 % (Group 1), 64 % (Group 2) and 69 % (Group 3). The overall predictive value of the revised Tokuhashi score using Cox regression for all groups was 66 %. Conclusion We would conclude that although the predictive value of the Tokuhashi score in terms of survival time is at best modest (66 %), the fact that there were statistically significant differences in survival between the groups looked at in this paper indicates that the scoring system, and the components which it consists of, are important in the evaluation of these patients when considering surgery.

Purpose Metastatic spinal cord compression (MSCC) requires expeditious treatment. While there is no ambiguity in the literature about the urgency of care for patients with MSCC, the effect of timing of surgical intervention has not been investigated in detail. The objective of our study was to investigate whether or not the 'timing of surgery' is an important factor in survival and neurological outcome in patients with MSCC. Methods All patients with MSCC presenting to our unit from October 2005 to March 2010 were included in this study. Patients were divided into three groups-those who underwent surgery within 24 h (Group 1, n = 45), between 24 and 48 h (Group 2, n = 23) and after 48 h (Group 3, n = 53) from acute presentation of neurological symptoms. The outcome measures studied were neurological outcome (change in Frankel grade post-operatively), survival (survival rate and median survival in days), incidence of infection, length of stay and complications. Results Patients' age, gender, revised Tokuhashi score, level of spinal metastasis and primary tumour type were not significantly different between the three groups. Greatest improvement in neurology was observed in Group 1, although not significantly when compared against Group 2 (24-48 h; (p = 0.09). When comparisons of neurological outcome were performed for all patients having surgery within 48 h (Groups 1 and 2) versus after 48 h (Group 3), the Frankel grade improvement was significant (p = 0.048) favouring surgery within 48 h of presentation. There was a negative correlation (-0.17) between the delay in surgery and the immediate neurological improvement, suggesting less improvement in those who had delayed surgery. There was no difference in length of hospital stay, incidence of infection, post-operative complications or survival between the groups. Conclusions Our results show that surgery should be performed sooner rather than later. Furthermore, earlier surgical treatment within 48 h in patients with MSCC resulted in significantly better neurological outcome. However, the timing of surgery did not influence length of hospital stay, complication rate or patient survival.