The BUN/Cr ratio at the time of initiation of dialysis was associated with all-cause mortality.

Some variables including age, comorbidity of diabetes, and so on at dialysis initiation are associated with patient prognosis. Cardiovascular (CV) events are a major cause of death, and adequate models that predict prognosis in dialysis patients are warranted. Therefore, we created models using some variables at dialysis initiation. We used a database of 1,520 consecutive dialysis patients (median age, 70 years; 492 women [32.4%]) from a multicenter prospective cohort study. We established the primary endpoint as a composite of the incidence of first CV events or all-cause death. A multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to construct a model. We considered a complex and a simple model. We used area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) to assess and compare the predictive performances of the prediction models and evaluated the improvement in discrimination using the complex model versus the simple model using net reclassification improvement (NRI). We then assessed integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) to evaluate improvements in average sensitivity and specificity. Of 392 deaths, 152 were CV-related. Totally, 506 CV events occurred during the follow-up period (median 1,285 days). Finally, 692 patients reached the primary endpoint. Baseline data were set at dialysis initiation. AUROC for the primary endpoint was 0.737 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.712–0.761) in the simple model and 0.765 (95% CI, 0.741–0.788) in the complex model. There were significant intergroup differences in NRI (0.44; 95% CI, 0.34–0.53; p < 0.001) and IDI (0.02; 95% CI, 0.02–0.03; p < 0.001). We prepared a Shiny R application for each model to automatically calculate the predicted occurrence probability ( https://statacademy.shinyapps.io/App_inaguma_20190717/ ). The complex model made more accurate predictions than the simple model. However, the intergroup difference was not significant. Hence, the simple model was more useful than the complex model. The tool was useful in a real-world clinical setting because it required only routinely available variables. Moreover, we emphasized that the tool could predict the incidence of CV events or all-cause mortality for individual patients. In the future, we must confirm its external validity in other prospective cohorts.

Introduction Albeit uncommon, hydrothorax is an important complication of peritoneal dialysis (PD). Due to paucity of evidence for optimal treatment, this study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness and safety of computed tomographic (CT) peritoneography and surgical intervention involving video-assisted thoracic surgery (VATS) for hydrothorax in a retrospective cohort of patients who underwent PD in Japan. Methods Of the 982 patients who underwent PD from six centers in Japan between 2007 and 2019, 25 (2.5%) with diagnosed hydrothorax were enrolled in this study. PD withdrawal rates were compared between patients who underwent VATS for diaphragm repair (surgical group) and those who did not (non-surgical group) using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test. Results The surgical and non-surgical groups comprised a total of 11 (44%) and 14 (56%) patients, respectively. Following hydrothorax diagnosis by thoracentesis and detection of penetrated sites on the diaphragm using CT peritoneography, VATS was performed at a median time of 31 days (interquartile range [IQR], 20-96 days). During follow-up (median, 26 months; IQR, 10-51 months), 9 (64.3%) and 2 (18.2%) patients in the non-surgical and surgical groups,

Background: In patients on maintenance dialysis, increased serum calcium levels are known to be associated with a poor prognosis. However, it is not known whether serum calcium levels at dialysis initiation have an impact on subsequent prognosis. Methods: The subjects were patients who were newly initiated dialysis at the 17 Aichi Cohort Study of Prognosis in Patients Newly Initiated into Dialysis (AICOPP) group centers. The study included 1524 patients who were at least 20 years old, had CKD, and provided written consent. We excluded one patient whose serum adjusted calcium was not assessed and six patients whose outcomes were unknown. Thus, we enrolled 1517 subjects into the study. The patients were divided into the following five groups: (1) G1 with a serum adjusted calcium level <7.0 mg/dL, (2) G2 with 7.0 to <8.0 mg/dL, (3) G3 with 8.0 to <9.0 mg/dL, (4) G4 with 9.0 to <10.0 mg/dL, and (5) G5 with ≥10.0 mg/dL. The study outcomes included: (1) comparisons of all-cause mortality rates in the five groups; (2) extraction of factors influencing all-cause mortality. Results: There were 268 deaths during the follow-up period (G1, 9 cases; G2, 30 cases; G3, 91 cases; G4, 110 cases; G5, 28 cases). Significant differences were observed between the five groups' cumulative survival rates (Logrank test p = 0.005) by using Kaplan-Meier method. There were significant differences in the incidence of either aortic or cardiac valve calcification among the five groups (aortic calcification: p = 0.006, cardiac valve calcification: p = 0.008). Moreover, lower Barthel Index, which evaluated activities of daily living, were associated with higher serum adjusted calcium levels (p < 0.001). Multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis using the stepwise method indicated that increasing serum adjusted calcium was associated with all-cause mortality (every 1 mg/dL increase, HR = 1.267, 95% CI = 1.092 − 1.470, p = 0.002). In addition, high mortality was associated with advanced age, male gender, low systolic blood pressure, history of cardiovascular disease, and no prior use of calcium carbonate. Conclusions: Serum adjusted calcium levels at dialysis initiation were demonstrated to be associated with all-cause mortality after dialysis initiation.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular (CV) events. Recently, elevated neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) levels have been reported in patients with heart failure, coronary heart disease, or stroke. Our aim was to assess urinary NGAL as a predictor of CV events in patients with CKD. This was a prospective observational cohort study of 404 patients with predialysis CKD. CV events were defined as CV death, acute coronary syndrome, hospitalization for worsening heart failure, stroke and dissection of aorta. During a mean follow-up period of 33 months, 77 CV events (19.1 %) occurred. After adjustment for gender, age, diabetes, previous cardiovascular disease, urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR), estimated glomerular filtration rate, hemoglobin, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, patients with the other quartiles of urinary NGAL had significantly higher risk of CV events compared with patients with the lowest quartile (hazard ratio (HR) 2.81, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.01-7.81, P = 0.047 for Q2, HR 3.31, 95 % CI 1.22-9.00, P = 0.019 for Q3, and HR 3.27, 95 % CI 1.15-9.29, P = 0.026 for Q4). Regarding the combination of urinary NGAL with UACR, we also stratified patients into four groups according to whether the level of each marker was above or below the median (61.8 μg per gram creatinine (gCr) for NGAL and 351.1 mg/gCr for UACR). Four-year CV event-free survival rates were 89.2, 79.6, 71.8, and 51.5 % in order for the four respective groups (P < 0.0001). Elevated urinary NGAL was able to predict future CV events in CKD patients, and had incremental predictive value with elevated UACR.