Arnica mallotopus Makino is a perennial herb of Asteraceae endemic to Honshu and its adjacent islands in Japan (Ohashi et al., 2016). The species occurs preferentially on rock outcrops along mountain streams that are well watered by snowmelt and are often maintained by natu-

Deer overabundance is a contributing factor in the degradation of plant communities and ecosystems worldwide. The management and conservation of the deer-affected ecosystems requires us to urgently grasp deer population trends and to identify the factors that affect them. In this study, we developed a Bayesian state-space model to estimate the population dynamics of sika deer (Cervus nippon) in a cool-temperate forest in Japan, where wolves (Canis lupus hodophilax) are extinct. The model was based on field data collected from block count surveys, road count surveys by vehicles, mortality surveys during the winter, and nuisance control for 12 years (2007-2018). We clarified the seasonal and annual fluctuation of the deer population. We found a peak of deer abundance (2010) over 12 years. In 2011 the estimated deer abundance decreased drastically and has remained at a low level then. The deer abundance gradually increased from April to December during 2013-2018. The seasonal fluctuation we detected could reflect the seasonal migration pattern of deer and the population recruitment through fawn births in early summer. In our model, snowfall accumulation, which can be a lethal factor for deer, may have slightly affected their mortality during the winter. Although we could not detect a direct effect of snow on population dynamics, snowfall decrease due to global warming may decelerate the winter migration of deer; subsequently, deer staying on-site may intensively forage evergreen perennial plants during the winter season. The nuisance control affected population dynamics. Even in wildlife protection areas and national parks where hunting is regulated, nuisance control could be effective in buffering the effect of deer browsing on forest ecosystems.

Aims: Quaternary climate changes dramatically affected species' distributions and thus impacted genetic diversity patterns, particularly for rear-edge populations.Empirical studies have shown the southernmost (rear-edge), fragmented populations of Japanese woody plants can harbour high genetic diversity owing to their origin in southern glacial refugia. The effect of Holocene climate warming on rear-edge populations has, however, rarely been demonstrated. We assessed whether the genetic structure of populations of temperate plants in Japan can be interpreted to show legacies of both icy (Last Glacial Maximum, LGM) and warm (Holocene) climates.Location: Japanese Archipelago. Taxon: Hemerocallis middendorffii (Asphodelaceae).Methods: Population genetic profiles of 737 individuals from 41 populations were analysed to examine population structure and past population demography, using 12 EST-SSR markers. Present and past suitable habitat areas during the LGM and the Holocene climatic optimum were estimated by ecological niche modelling (ENM).Reconstructed palaeodistribution was combined with population genetics to statistically predict population demographics in relation to past climate changes.Results: Genetic analysis of the 41 populations revealed 6 regional population groups.Four groups widely dominating the northern-central ranges harboured high genetic diversity, whereas genetic divergence within the groups was low. In contrast, the two groups at the southwestern edge were geographically and genetically isolated, and they showed the lowest genetic diversity. The estimated palaeodistributions showed a decrease in the suitable range during the Holocene in comparison with that at the LGM, and only habitat suitability in the Holocene was able to predict the genetic diversity across the range. Main conclusions:Populations at the centre of the current distribution harbour high genetic diversity because they remained stable during both cold and warm periods.However, habitat fragmentation and population decline in relation to climate warming during the Holocene resulted in genetic isolation and impoverishment of the rearedge populations.

2Deer overabundance is a contributing factor in the degradation of plant communities 3 and ecosystems worldwide. The management and conservation of the deer-affected 4 ecosystems requires us to urgently grasp deer population trends and to identify the 5 factors that affect them. In this study, we developed a Bayesian state-space model to 6 estimate the population dynamics of sika deer (Cervus nippon) in a cool-temperate 7 forest in Japan, where wolves (Canis lupus hodophilax) are extinct. The model was 8 based on field data collected from block count surveys, road count surveys by vehicles, 9 mortality surveys during the winter, and nuisance control for 12 years (2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017)(2018). We 10 clarified the seasonal and annual fluctuation of the deer population. We found two peaks 11 of deer abundance (2007 and 2010) over 12 years. In 2011 the estimated deer 12 abundance decreased drastically and has remained at a low level then. The deer 13 population increased from spring to autumn and decreased from autumn to winter in 14 most years. The seasonal fluctuation we detected could reflect the seasonal migration 15 pattern of deer and the population recruitment through fawn births in early summer. In 16 our model, snowfall accumulation, which can be a lethal factor for deer, may have 17 slightly affected their mortality during the winter. Although we could not detect a direct 18 effect of snow on population dynamics, snowfall decrease due to global warming may decelerate the winter migration of deer; subsequently, deer staying on-site may 2 intensively forage evergreen perennial plants during the winter season. The nuisance 3 control affected population dynamics. Even in wildlife protection areas and national 4 parks where hunting is regulated, nuisance control could be effective in buffering the 5 effect of deer browsing on forest ecosystems. Introduction 2In the past few decades, deer have become increasingly abundant worldwide [1, 2]; 3 this population increases has contributed to the degradation of plant communities and 4 ecosystems [3 -6]. In general, the population dynamics of animals are affected by birth, 5 mortality, and migration rates. Large ungulates are able to breed under low food 6 availability [7], therefore, the birth rate of deer would not largely decrease even in a 7 degraded forest; however, the density-dependent decline in the birth rate of deer occurs 8 at a later period of the outbreak stage [8]. Furthermore, the survival rate of adult deer 9 was high even in a poor nutritional environment [9]. Thus, deer is a species that can live 10 in high densities and low-nutrient environments. If predators (e.g. wolves) are absent, 11 hunting is one options to control deer populations under these conditions [10, 11]. 12In snow-covered area and, in particular, during heavy snowfall, the survival rate of 13 sika deer (Cervus nippon) decreases [9, 12]. Kawase et al. (2014) [13] projected that 14 winter precipitation including snowfall would decrease in broad r...

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