We have developed UFCORIN, a platform for studying and automating space weather prediction. Using our system we have tested 6160 different combinations of Solar Dynamic Observatory/ Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager data as input data, and simulated the prediction of GOES X-ray flux for 2 years (2011-2012) with 1 h cadence. We have found that direct comparison of the true skill statistic (TSS) from small cross-validation sets is ill posed and used the standard scores (z) of the TSS to compare the performance of the various prediction strategies. The z of a strategy is a stochastic variable of the stochastically chosen cross-validation data set, and the z for the three strategies best at predicting X-, ≥M-, and ≥C-class flares are better than the average z of the 6160 strategies by 2.3 , 2.1 , and 3.8 confidence levels, respectively. The best three TSS values were 0.75 ± 0.07, 0.48 ± 0.02, and 0.56 ± 0.04, respectively.

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Automated forecasts serve important role in space weather science, by providing statistical insights to flare-trigger mechanisms, and by enabling tailor-made forecasts and high-frequency forecasts. We have been operating unmanned flare forecast service since August, 2015 that provides 24-hour-ahead forecast of solar flares, every 12 minutes. We report the method and prediction results of the system. Figure 1. A screenshot from our forecast website. The blue curve is the observed Solar X-ray Flux (1-8 Å). The red dots are our forecast of the 24-hour future maxima of the Solar X-ray Flux. The pale red curve indicates the correct prediction, in retrospect. Our ideal goal is to have all the red dots on the pale red curve.

Applying the relation obtained in the similarity theory of turbulence, it has been already theoretically obtained in Part I that the relation _??_ would be approximately satisfied between the reduced scale of the wind velocity and that of the model as a condition of similarity, that is, practical and approximate modeling criterion for a local wind under the limited conditions. In the present paper, some experiments to which the above relation has been applied are described. iNemoto Vol . XII No.