Oilfield development aiming at crude oil production is an extremely complex process, which involves many uncertain risk factors affecting oil output. Thus, risk prediction and early warning about oilfield development may insure operating and managing oilfields efficiently to meet the oil production plan of the country and sustainable development of oilfields. However, scholars and practitioners in the all world are seldom concerned with the risk problem of oilfield block development. The early warning index system of blocks development which includes the monitoring index and planning index was refined and formulated on the basis of researching and analyzing the theory of risk forecasting and early warning as well as the oilfield development. Based on the indexes of warning situation predicted by neural network, the method dividing the interval of warning degrees was presented by “3σ” rule; and a new method about forecasting and early warning of risk was proposed by introducing neural network to Bayesian networks. Case study shows that the results obtained in this paper are right and helpful to the management of oilfield development risk.

When designing the underground logistics system, it is necessary to consider the uncertainty of logistics nodes, high cost, and high risk. This paper employed the theories of uncertain graph and dynamic programming to solve the network planning problem of underground logistics system. Firstly, we proposed the concepts of uncertainty measure matrix and vertices structure uncertainty graph by using uncertainty measure and uncertainty graph. Secondly, vertices structure uncertainty graph of the underground logistics system was constructed based on our proposed vertices structure uncertainty graph and the uncertainty of logistics nodes. Thirdly, the dynamic programming model of the underground logistics system was established, and its solution algorithm was also designed by improving simulated annealing. Finally, the correctness and feasibility of the method was validated by using a numerical example of the underground logistics system in Xianlin district, Nanjing City in China.