The joint movements of exchange rates and U.S. and foreign term structures over short-time windows around macro announcements are studied using a 14-year span of high-frequency data. In order to evaluate whether the joint effects can be reconciled with conventional theory, the implications of these joint movements for changes in expected future exchange rates and changes in foreign exchange risk premia are deduced. For several real macro announcements, a stronger than expected release appreciates the dollar today, and must either (i) lower the risk premium for holding foreign currency rather than dollars, or (ii) imply net expected dollar depreciation over the ensuing decade. Abstract: Many recent papers have studied movements in stock, bond, and currency prices over short windows of time around macro announcements. This paper adds to the announcement effects literature in two ways. First, we study the joint announcement effects across a broad range of assets--exchange rates and U.S. and foreign term structures. In order to evaluate whether the joint effects can be reconciled with conventional theory, we interpret the joint movements in light of uncovered interest rate parity or changes in risk premia. For several real macro announcements, we find that a stronger than expected release appreciates the dollar today, but that it must either (i) lower the relative risk premium for holding foreign currency rather than dollars, or (ii) imply considerable future expected dollar depreciation. The latter implies an overshooting behavior akin to that described by Dornbusch (1976). Second, we use a longer span of high frequency data than has been common in announcement work. A longer span of high frequency data contributes to the precision of our estimates and allows us to explore the possibility that the effects of macro surprises on asset prices have varied over time. We find evidence, for example, that PPI releases had a larger effect on U.S. interest rates before about 1992 than subsequently.
This paper considers the potential role of marriage in improving labor market outcomes through the expansion of an individuals' networks. I focus on the impact of a father-in-law on a young man's career using panel data from China. Particular features of the Chinese context allows for an identification strategy that isolates the network effects related to a man's father-in-law by comparing the post-marriage death of a father-in-law with the death of a mother-in-law. The estimates suggest
Building on the economic research that demonstrates a positive relationship between height and worker ability, the author compares wage returns to height for immigrants and for natives to explore possible explanations for the positive wage-height gradient. Using multiple data sets, the article presents a robust empirical finding that the wage gains associated with height are almost twice as large for immigrants as for native-born individuals. This wage relationship occurs because the productivity gap between tall and short immigrants is greater than the productivity gap between tall and short native-born workers. The author next tests for the possibility that in the relative absence of other sources of information about immigrants, employers place more importance on height for immigrants than for native-born individuals. The evidence does not support the hypothesis of statistical discrimination based on height.
AbstractBuilding on the economic research that demonstrates a positive relationship
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