A simple scoring system that only needs easily available patient and aneurysmal information was constructed. This can be used in clinical decision making regarding management of unruptured cerebral aneurysms.

OBJECTIVEThe annual rupture rate of small (3–4 mm) unruptured cerebral aneurysms (UCAs) is 0.36% per year, however, the proportion of small ruptured aneurysms < 5 mm is 35%. This discrepancy is explained by the hypothesis that most acute subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is from recently formed, unscreened aneurysms, but this hypothesis is without definitive proof. The authors aimed to clarify the actual number of screened, ruptured small aneurysms and risk factors for rupture.METHODSThe Unruptured Cerebral Aneurysm Study Japan, a project of the Japan Neurosurgical Society, was designed to clarify the natural course of UCAs. From January 2001 through March 2004, 6697 UCAs among 5720 patients were prospectively registered. At registration, 2839 patients (49.6%) had 3132 (46.8%) small UCAs of 3–4 mm. The registered, treated, and rupture numbers of these small aneurysms and the annual rupture rate were investigated. The rate was assessed per aneurysm. The characteristics of patients and aneurysms were compared to those of larger unruptured aneurysms (≥ 5 mm). Cumulative rates of SAH were estimated per aneurysm. Risk factors underwent univariate and multivariate analysis.RESULTSTreatment and rupture numbers of small UCAs were 1132 (37.1% of all treated aneurysms) and 23 (20.7% of all ruptured aneurysms), respectively. The registered, treated, rupture number, and annual rupture rates were 1658 (24.8%), 495 (16.2%), 11 (9.9%), and 0.30%, respectively, among 3-mm aneurysms, and 1474 (22.0%), 637 (20.9%), 12 (10.8%), and 0.45%, respectively, among 4-mm aneurysms. Multivariate risk-factor analysis revealed that a screening brain checkup (hazard ratio [HR] 4.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2–14.4), history of SAH (HR 10.8, 95% CI 2.3–51.1), uncontrolled hypertension (HR 5.2, 95% CI 1.8–15.3), and location on the anterior communicating artery (ACoA; HR 5.0, 95% CI 1.6–15.5) were independent predictors of rupture.CONCLUSIONSAlthough the annual rupture rate of small aneurysms was low, the actual number of ruptures was not low. Small aneurysms that ruptured during follow-up could be detected, screened, and managed based on each risk factor. Possible selection criteria for treating small UCAs include a history of SAH, uncontrolled hypertension, location on the ACoA, and young patients. Further large prospective and longitudinal trials are needed.Clinical trial registration no.: C000000418 (https://www.umin.ac.jp/ctr)

Objectives:The aim of this study was to identify risk factors for rupture of unruptured cerebral aneurysms (UCAs) in elderly Japanese patients aged 70 years or older.Methods:The participants included all patients 70 years of age or older in 3 prospective studies in Japan (the Unruptured Cerebral Aneurysm Study of Japan [UCAS Japan], UCAS II, and the prospective study at the Jikei University School of Medicine). A total of 1,896 patients aged 70 years or older with 2,227 UCAs were investigated. The median and mean follow-up periods were 990 and 802.7 days, respectively.Results:The mean aneurysm size was 6.2 ± 3.9 mm. Sixty-eight patients (3.6%) experienced subarachnoid hemorrhage during the follow-up period. Multivariable analysis per patient revealed that in patients aged 80 years or older (hazard ratio [HR], 2.02; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16–3.49, p = 0.012), aneurysms 7 mm or larger (HR, 3.08; 95% CI, 1.35–7.03, p = 0.007 for 7–9 mm; HR, 7.82; 95% CI, 3.60–16.98, p < 0.001 for 10–24 mm; and HR, 43.31; 95% CI, 12.55–149.42, p < 0.001 for ≥25 mm) and internal carotid–posterior communicating artery aneurysms (HR, 2.45; 95% CI, 1.23–4.88, p = 0.011) were independent predictors for UCA rupture in elderly patients.Conclusions:In our pooled analysis of prospective cohorts in Japan, patient age and aneurysm size and location were significant risk factors for UCA rupture in elderly patients.