Typhoons generally develop in the warm tropics, but rarely damage coral reefs between the latitudes 10°N and 10°S because they intensify at higher latitudes. However, climate change is forcing anomalous weather patterns, and is causing typhoons to take less predictable trajectories. For the first time in 70 yr, in December 2012, a super typhoon passed near the island of Palau, located at 7°N in the western tropical Pacific Ocean. A year later, another super typhoon passed over the northern reefs of Palau. This study characterized the impacts of both typhoons on coral and fish assemblages in 3 habitats (i.e. outer reefs, patch reefs, and inner reefs) and at 2 depths (i.e. 3 and 10 m). Loss of coral cover was highest on the shallow, eastern slopes (~60% coral cover). Juvenile coral densities decreased along the western reef slope and on the inner reefs, where overall coral cover scarcely decreased. These results suggested a potential stockrecruitment relationship with corals on the damaged eastern reefs. Early successional corals, particularly pocilloporids, recruited 6 mo after the second typhoon. Fish communities were generally un altered by the first typhoon, except small parrotfishes, which doubled in density along the eastern reef-slope and increased on the inner reefs following the second typhoon. In combination, these findings demonstrate high spatial variability in coral loss, overall decreases in juvenile corals, and increases in herbivorous fishes on a tropical reef system that has rarely experienced large typhoon waves.

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Southwest Pacific nations are among some of the worst impacted and most vulnerable globally in terms of tropical cyclone (TC)-induced flooding and accompanying risks. This study objectively quantifies the fractional contribution of TCs to extreme rainfall (hereafter, TC contributions) in the context of climate variability and change. We show that TC contributions to extreme rainfall are substantially enhanced during active phases of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and by El Niño conditions (particularly over the eastern southwest Pacific region); this enhancement is primarily attributed to increased TC activity during these event periods. There are also indications of increasing intensities of TC-induced extreme rainfall events over the past few decades. A key part of this work involves development of sophisticated Bayesian regression models for individual island nations in order to better understand the synergistic relationships between TC-induced extreme rainfall and combinations of various climatic drivers that modulate the relationship. Such models are found to be very useful for not only assessing probabilities of TC- and non-TC induced extreme rainfall events but also evaluating probabilities of extreme rainfall for cases with different underlying climatic conditions. For example, TC-induced extreme rainfall probability over Samoa can vary from ~ 95 to ~ 75% during a La Niña period, if it coincides with an active or inactive phase of the MJO, and can be reduced to ~ 30% during a combination of El Niño period and inactive phase of the MJO. Several other such cases have been assessed for different island nations, providing information that have potentially important implications for planning and preparing for TC risks in vulnerable Pacific Island nations.

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