The interannual variation in tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific was examined for the active tropical cyclone (including summer and fall) during 1979-94. An emphasis was put on the possible effect of the interannual variation of atmospheric circulation and monsoon trough on tropical cyclone occurrence. The major findings of this study are the following. 1) A distinct increase (decrease) of tropical cyclone genesis frequency occurs north of the climatological location of the monsoon trough in the Philippine Sea during summers (June-August) with anomalous cold (warm) sea surface temperature (SST) over the NINO3 region. The interannual variation of tropical cyclone genesis in this region results from the appearance of an anomalous cyclonic (anticyclonic) cell situated in a summer teleconnection wave train emanating from the western tropical Pacific and progressing along the rim of the North Pacific. In addition to the north-south interannual variation, there is also a longitudinal interannual variation in the summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency over this region. The contrast of tropical cyclone genesis between the regions west and east of 150ЊE is reduced (enhanced) when the monsoon trough extends (retreats) eastward (westward) across this longitude during warm (cold) summers. 2) For fall (September-November), there is no clear relationship between the north-south interannual variation in the tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific and SST (NINO3). However, there is a perceptible tendency of the longitudinal interannual variation in tropical cyclone genesis frequency to follow the eastward extension/westward retreat of the monsoon trough in a way such as it does during the summer season.

The majority of monsoon depressions develop from the regenesis of westward-propagating residual lows from the east. Most of these residual lows can be traced to weather disturbances in the south China Sea, including tropical cyclones and 12-24-day monsoon lows. Hypothetically, any mechanism causing a variation in the occurrence frequency of these two types of weather disturbances in the western tropical Pacific-south China Sea (WTP-SCS) region may result in a corresponding change in the formation frequency of monsoon depressions over the Bay of Bengal. Two such possible mechanisms are interannual and intraseasonal variations of large-scale summer circulation in the WTP-SCS region induced by 1) the interannual variation of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern tropical Pacific and 2) the northward migration of the 30-60-day monsoon trough/ridge. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data and the 6-hourly tropical cyclone track collected by the Japan Meteorological Agency for the period of 1979-94 were analyzed to substantiate the aforementioned hypothesis. The findings are as follows. 1) Interannual variation. Based upon the SST averaged over the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NINO3 region (150Њ-90ЊW, 5ЊS-5ЊN),

The summer monsoons in East and Southeast Asia are characterized, respectively, by the Mei-yu (in eastern China)-Baiu (in Japan) front (MBF) and by the monsoon trough stretching from northern Indochina to the Philippine Sea. These two major monsoon elements are separated by the North Pacific anticyclone. As indicated by the 850-mb zonal wind and cumulus convection over some key areas, a distinct opposite-phase intraseasonal variation exists between the two monsoon elements. Two approaches are adopted to explore the cause of this opposite-phase variation (which reflects the coupling between the two monsoon components): 1) the correlation coefficient patterns between the 850-mb zonal-wind monsoon index and the 850-mb streamfunction field and 2) the composite 850-mb streamline charts and the 120ЊE zonal-wind cross sections. It is shown that the oppositephase variation between the two monsoon elements is caused by the anomalous circulation associated with the northward-migrating 30-60-day monsoon trough/ridge from the equator to 20ЊN and with the westward-propagating 12-24-day monsoon low-high along the latitude of ϳ15Њ-20ЊN. Results obtained in this study are used to address two often discussed phenomena of the East Asian monsoon: 1) the rapid northward shift of the MBF across the Yangtze River basin during the Mei-yu onset is related to the north-south meridional oscillation of the MBF, and 2) the three longitudinally oriented location zones of extremely heavy rain events in eastern China are formed by the alternation of deep cumulus convection zones associated with the intraseasonal monsoon vortices (centered in the northern part of the South China Sea) between extreme monsoon conditions.

This study uses a series of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (CGCM) experiments to examine the roles of the Indian and Pacific Oceans in the transition phases of the tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) in the Indian-Australian monsoon system. In each of the three CGCM experiments, air-sea interactions are restricted to a certain portion of the Indo-Pacific Ocean by including only that portion of the ocean in the ocean model component of the CGCM. The results show that the in-phase TBO transition from a strong (weak) Indian summer monsoon to a strong (weak) Australian summer monsoon occurs more often in the CGCM experiments that include an interactive Pacific Ocean. The out-of-phase TBO transition from a strong (weak) Australian summer monsoon to a weak (strong) Indian summer monsoon occurs more often in the CGCM experiments that include an interactive Indian Ocean. The associated sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are characterized by an ENSO-type pattern in the Pacific Ocean and basinwide warming/cooling in the Indian Ocean. The Pacific SST anomalies maintain large amplitude during the in-phase transition in the northern autumn and reverse their sign during the out-of-phase transition in the northern spring. On the other hand, the Indian Ocean SST anomalies maintain large amplitude during the out-of-phase monsoon transition and reverse their sign during the in-phase transition. These seasonally dependent evolutions of Indian and Pacific Ocean SST anomalies allow these two oceans to play different roles in the transition phases of the TBO in the Indian-Australian monsoon system.

Using the NASA/GEOS reanalysis data for 1980-95, the austral-summer stationary eddies in the tropicalsubtropical Southern Hemisphere are examined in two wave regimes: long and short wave (wave 1 and waves 2-6, respectively). The basic structure of the Bolivian high-Nordeste low (BH-NL) system is formed by a shortwave train across South America but modulated by the long-wave regime. The short-wave train exhibits a monsoonlike vertical phase reversal in the midtroposphere and a quarter-wave phase shift relative to the divergent circulation. As inferred from (a) the spatial relationship between the streamfunction and velocity potential and (b) the structure of the divergent circulation, the short-wave train forming the BH-NL system is maintained by South American local heating and remote African heating, while the long-wave regime is maintained by western tropical Pacific heating.The maintenance of the stationary waves in the two wave regimes is further illustrated by a simple diagnostic scheme that includes the velocity-potential maintenance equation (which links velocity potential and diabatic heating) and the streamfunction budget (which is the inverse Laplacian transform of the vorticity equation). Some simple relationships between streamfunction and velocity potential for both wave regimes are established to substantiate the links between diabatic heating and streamfunction; of particular interest is a Sverdrup balance in the short-wave regime. This simplified vorticity equation explains the vertical structure of the short-wave train associated with the BH-NL system and its spatial relationship with the divergent circulation.Based upon the diagnostic analysis of its maintenance a simple forced barotropic model is adopted to simulate the BH-NL system with idealized forcings, which imitates the real 200-mb divergence centers over South America, Africa, and the tropical Pacific. Numerical simulations demonstrate that the formation of the BH-NL system is affected not only by the African remote forcing, but also by the tropical Pacific forcing.