This paper measures the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure from two aspects of rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure, and empirically analyzes the impact of environmental regulation on industrial structure transformation and upgrading by using data of 29 provinces in China from 2004 to 2015. It was found that there is a significant nonlinear effect between environmental regulation and the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure. Specifically, environmental regulation is not conducive to the rational development of industrial structure, but with the continuous improvement of economic development level and human capital level, the inhibitory effect of environmental regulation on the rationalization of industrial structure is gradually weakened. The influence coefficient of environmental regulation on the rationalization of industrial structure is 0.0619~0.2648. Moreover, environmental regulation effectively drives the upgrading of industrial structure, and when the level of economic development and human capital are higher than the threshold, the role of environmental regulation in promoting the high development of industrial structure is gradually enhanced. The influence coefficient of environmental regulation on the upgrading of industrial structure is 0.0540~0.5626. Therefore, it is of great significance to formulate appropriate environmental regulation policies according to local conditions in the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure.

Under the goal of a “new development pattern”, it is of great practical significance to accurately identify the economic growth effect of fiscal and tax policies. This paper constructs a TVP-FAVAR model to measure the economic effects of China’s fiscal and tax policies at the aggregate and structural levels. The results show that the reduction in total tax has a positive effect on real variables such as output and consumption; especially at the present stage, the promotion effect of total tax reduction on economic growth is relatively strong, but the stimulation effect on price is relatively weak. Further, the tax structure in which the ratio of direct tax to total tax increases and the ratio of indirect tax to total tax decreases is more conducive to the increase in output and consumption, and will not strongly stimulate the rise of price level. Therefore, at this stage, China should continue to vigorously implement the tax reduction policy and ensure the continuity of the tax reduction policy. At the same time, we should continue to optimize the tax structure and give better play to the regulatory role of fiscal and tax policies in income redistribution, so as to achieve the goal that fiscal and tax policies help build a “new development pattern” and promote high-quality economic development.

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