BACKGROUNDAn alternative to epidemiological models for transmission dynamics of Covid-19 in China, we propose the artificial intelligence (AI)-inspired methods for real-time forecasting of Covid-19 to estimate the size, lengths and ending time of Covid-19 across China. METHODSWe developed a modified stacked auto-encoder for modeling the transmission dynamics of the epidemics. We applied this model to real-time forecasting the confirmed cases of Covid-19 across China. The data were collected from January 11 to February 27, 2020 by WHO. We used the latent variables in the auto-encoder and clustering algorithms to group the provinces/cities for investigating the transmission structure. RESULTSWe forecasted curves of cumulative confirmed cases of Covid-19 across China from Jan 20, 2020 to April 20, 2020. Using the multiple-step forecasting, the estimated average errors of 6step, 7-step, 8-step, 9-step and 10-step forecasting were 1.64%, 2.27%, 2.14%, 2.08%, 0.73%, respectively. We predicted that the time points of the provinces/cities entering the plateau of the forecasted transmission dynamic curves varied, ranging from Jan 21 to April 19, 2020. The 34 provinces/cities were grouped into 9 clusters. CONCLUSIONSThe accuracy of the AI-based methods for forecasting the trajectory of Covid-19 was high. We predicted that the epidemics of Covid-19 will be over by the middle of April. If the data are reliable 3 and there are no second transmissions, we can accurately forecast the transmission dynamics of the Covid-19 across the provinces/cities in China. The AI-inspired methods are a powerful tool for helping public health planning and policymaking.

As the Covid-19 pandemic surges around the world, questions arise about the number of global cases at the pandemic's peak, the length of the pandemic before receding, and the timing of intervention strategies to significantly stop the spread of Covid-19. We have developed artificial intelligence (AI)-inspired methods for modeling the transmission dynamics of the epidemics and evaluating interventions to curb the spread and impact of COVID-19. The developed methods were applied to the surveillance data of cumulative and new COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by WHO as of March 16th, 2020. Both the timing and the degree of intervention were evaluated. The average error of five-step ahead forecasting was 2.5%. The total peak number of cumulative cases, new cases, and the maximum number of cumulative cases in the world with complete intervention implemented 4 weeks later than the beginning date (March 16th, 2020) reached 75,249,909, 10,086,085, and 255,392,154, respectively. However, the total peak number of cumulative cases, new cases, and the maximum number of cumulative cases in the world with complete intervention after 1 week were reduced to 951,799, 108,853 and 1,530,276, respectively. Duration time of the COVID-19 spread was reduced from 356 days to 232 days between later and earlier interventions. We observed that delaying intervention for 1 month caused the maximum number of cumulative cases reduce by −166.89 times that of earlier complete intervention, and the number of deaths increased from 53,560 to 8,938,725. Earlier and complete intervention is necessary to stem the tide of COVID-19 infection.

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medRxiv preprint As COVID-19 evolves rapidly, the issues the governments of affected countries facing are whether and when to take public health interventions and what levels of strictness of these interventions should be, as well as when the COVID-19 spread reaches the stopping point after interventions are taken. To help governments with policy-making, we developed modified autoencoders (MAE) method to forecast spread trajectory of Covid-19 of countries affected, under different levels and timing of intervention strategies. Our analysis showed public health interventions should be executed as soon as possible. Delaying intervention 4 weeks after March 8, 2020 would cause the maximum number of cumulative cases of death increase from 7,174 to 133,608 and the ending points of the epidemic postponed from Jun 25 to Aug 22.All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.(which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.

As of May 1, 2020, the number of cases of Covid-19 in the US passed 1, 062,446, interventions to slow down the spread of Covid-19 curtailed most social activities. Meanwhile, an economic crisis and resistance to the strict intervention measures are rising. Some researchers proposed intermittent social distancing that may drive the outbreak of Covid-19 into 2022. Questions arise about whether we should maintain or relax quarantine measures. We developed novel artificial intelligence and causal inference integrated methods for real-time prediction and control of nonlinear epidemic systems. We estimated that the peak time of the Covid-19 in the US would be April 24, 2020 and its outbreak in the US will be over by the end of July and reach 1,551,901 cases. We evaluated the impact of relaxing the current interventions for reopening economy on the spread of Covid-19. We provide tools for balancing the risks of workers and reopening economy.. CC-BY 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)