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Background. Motor recovery after stroke is predicted only moderately by clinical variables, implying that there is still a substantial amount of unexplained, biologically meaningful variability in recovery. Regression diagnostics can indicate whether this is associated simply with Gaussian error or instead with multiple subpopulations that vary in their relationships to the clinical variables. Objective. To perform regression diagnostics on a linear model for recovery versus clinical predictors. Methods. Forty-one patients with ischemic stroke were studied. Impairment was assessed using the upper extremity Fugl-Meyer Motor Score. Motor recovery was defined as the change in the upper extremity Fugl-Meyer Motor Score from 24 to 72 hours after stroke to 3 or 6 months later. The clinical predictors in the model were age, gender, infarct location (subcortical vs cortical), diffusion weighted imaging infarct volume, time to reassessment, and acute upper extremity Fugl-Meyer Motor Score. Regression diagnostics included a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for Gaussian errors and a test for outliers using Studentized deleted residuals. Results. In the random sample, clinical variables explained only 47% of the variance in recovery. Among the patients with the most severe initial impairment, there was a set of regression outliers who recovered very poorly. With the outliers removed, explained variance in recovery increased to 89%, and recovery was well approximated by a proportional relationship with initial impairment (recovery ≅ 0.70 × initial impairment). Conclusions. Clinical variables only moderately predict motor recovery. Regression diagnostics demonstrated the existence of a subpopulation of outliers with severe initial impairment who show little recovery. When these outliers were removed, clinical variables were good predictors of recovery among the remaining patients, showing a tight proportional relationship to initial impairment.

Purpose-To critically review and evaluate the science behind individual eligibility criteria (indication/inclusion and contraindications/exclusion criteria) for intravenous recombinant tissue-type plasminogen activator (alteplase) treatment in acute ischemic stroke. This will allow us to better inform stroke providers of quantitative and qualitative risks associated with alteplase administration under selected commonly and uncommonly encountered clinical circumstances and to identify future research priorities concerning these eligibility criteria, which could potentially expand the safe and judicious use of alteplase and improve outcomes after stroke. Methods-Writing group members were nominated by the committee chair on the basis of their previous work in relevant topic areas and were approved by the American Heart Association Stroke Council's Scientific Statement Oversight Committee and the American Heart Association's Manuscript Oversight Committee. The writers used systematic literature reviews, references to published clinical and epidemiology studies, morbidity and mortality reports, clinical and public health guidelines, authoritative statements, personal files, and expert opinion to summarize existing evidence and to indicate gaps in current knowledge and, when appropriate, formulated recommendations using standard American Heart Association criteria. All members of the writing group had the opportunity to comment on and approved the final version of this document. The document underwent extensive American Heart Association internal peer review, Stroke The American Heart Association makes every effort to avoid any actual or potential conflicts of interest that may arise as a result of an outside relationship or a personal, professional, or business interest of a member of the writing panel. Specifically, all members of the writing group are required to complete and submit a Disclosure Questionnaire showing all such relationships that might be perceived as real or potential conflicts of interest.This statement was approved by the American Heart Association Science Advisory and Coordinating Committee on September 24, 2015, and the American Heart Association Executive Committee on October 5, 2015. A copy of the document is available at http://my.americanheart.org/statements by selecting either the "By Topic" link or the "By Publication Date" link. To purchase additional reprints, call 843-216-2533 or e-mail kelle.ramsay@ wolterskluwer.com.The online-only Data Supplement, which contains literature search strategies and Figures A, B, and C, is available with this article at http://circ. ahajournals.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1161/STR.0000000000000086/-/DC1.The American Heart Association requests that this document be cited as follows: Demaerschalk BM, Kleindorfer DO, Adeoye OM, Demchuk AM, Fugate JE, Grotta JC, Khalessi AA, Levy EI, Palesch YY, Prabhakaran S, Saposnik G, Saver JL, Smith EE; on behalf of the American Heart Association Stroke Council and Council on Epidemiology and Prevention. Scientific rational...