The study of islands as model systems has played an important role in the development of evolutionary and ecological theory. The 50th anniversary of MacArthur and Wilson's (December 1963) article, 'An equilibrium theory of insular zoogeography', was a recent milestone for this theme. Since 1963, island systems have provided new insights into the formation of ecological communities. Here, building on such developments, we highlight prospects for research on islands to improve our understanding of the ecology and evolution of communities in general. Throughout, we emphasise how attributes of islands combine to provide unusual research opportunities, the implications of which stretch far beyond islands. Molecular tools and increasing data acquisition now permit reassessment of some fundamental issues that interested MacArthur and Wilson. These include the formation of ecological networks, species abundance distributions, and the contribution of evolution to community assembly. We also extend our prospects to other fields of ecology and evolution -understanding ecosystem functioning, speciation and diversification -frequently employing assets of oceanic islands in inferring the geographic area within which evolution has occurred, and potential barriers to gene flow. Although island-based theory is continually being enriched, incorporating non-equilibrium dynamics is identified as a major challenge for the future.

Although the role that Pleistocene glacial cycles have played in shaping the present biota of oceanic islands world‐wide has long been recognized, their geographical, biogeographical and ecological implications have not yet been fully incorporated within existing biogeographical models. Here we summarize the different types of impacts that glacial cycles may have had on oceanic islands, including cyclic changes in climate, shifts in marine currents and wind regimes and, especially, cycles of sea level change. The latter have affected geographical parameters such as island area, isolation and elevation. They have also influenced the configurations of archipelagos via island fusion and fission, and cycles of seamount emergence and submergence. We hypothesize that these sea level cycles have had significant impacts on the biogeographical processes shaping oceanic island biotas, influencing the rates and patterns of immigration and extinction and hence species richness. Here we provide a first step toward the development of a glacial‐sensitive model of island biogeography, representing the tentative temporal evolution of those biogeographical parameters during the last glacial cycle. From this reasoning we attempt to derive predictions regarding the imprint of sea level cycles on genetic, demographic or biogeographical patterns within remote island biotas.

Aim We assessed the biogeographical implications of Pleistocene sea-level fluctuations on the surface area of Macaronesian volcanic oceanic islands. We quantified the effects of sea-level cycles on surface area over 1000-year intervals. Using data from the Canarian archipelago, we tested whether changes in island configuration since the late Pleistocene explain species distribution patterns.Location Thirty-one islands of four Macaronesian archipelagos (the Azores, Madeira, the Canary Islands and Cape Verde).Methods We present a model that quantifies the surface-area change of volcanic islands driven by fluctuations in mean sea level (MSL). We assessed statistically whether Canarian islands that were merged during sea-level lowstands exhibit a significantly higher percentage of shared (endemic) species than other comparable neighbouring islands that remained isolated, using multimodel comparisons evaluated using the Akaike information criterion (AIC).Results Each Macaronesian island exhibited a unique area-change history. The previously connected islands of Lanzarote and Fuerteventura share significantly more species of Insecta than the similarly geographically proximate island pair of La Gomera and Tenerife, which have never been connected. Additionally, Lanzarote and Fuerteventura contain the highest percentage of two-island endemic Plantae species compared with all other neighbouring island pairs within the Canaries. The multimodel comparison showed that past connectedness provides improved explanatory models of shared island endemics.Main conclusions Pleistocene sea-level changes resulted in abrupt alterations in island surface areas, coastal habitats and geographical isolation, often within two millennia. The merging of currently isolated islands during marine lowstands may explain both shared species richness and patterns of endemism on volcanic islands. Currently, the islands are close to their long-term minimum surface areas and most isolated configurations, suggesting that insular biota are particularly vulnerable to increasing human impact.

Despite islands contributing only 6.7% of land surface area, they harbor ~20% of the Earth’s biodiversity, but unfortunately also ~50% of the threatened species and 75% of the known extinctions since the European expansion around the globe. Due to their geological and geographic history and characteristics, islands act simultaneously as cradles of evolutionary diversity and museums of formerly widespread lineages—elements that permit islands to achieve an outstanding endemicity. Nevertheless, the majority of these endemic species are inherently vulnerable due to genetic and demographic factors linked with the way islands are colonized. Here, we stress the great variation of islands in their physical geography (area, isolation, altitude, latitude) and history (age, human colonization, human density). We provide examples of some of the most species rich and iconic insular radiations. Next, we analyze the natural vulnerability of the insular biota, linked to genetic and demographic factors as a result of founder events as well as the typically small population sizes of many island species. We note that, whereas evolution toward island syndromes (including size shifts, derived insular woodiness, altered dispersal ability, loss of defense traits, reduction in clutch size) might have improved the ability of species to thrive under natural conditions on islands, it has simultaneously made island biota disproportionately vulnerable to anthropogenic pressures such as habitat loss, overexploitation, invasive species, and climate change. This has led to the documented extinction of at least 800 insular species in the past 500 years, in addition to the many that had already gone extinct following the arrival of first human colonists on islands in prehistoric times. Finally, we summarize current scientific knowledge on the ongoing biodiversity loss on islands worldwide and express our serious concern that the current trajectory will continue to decimate the unique and irreplaceable natural heritage of the world’s islands. We conclude that drastic actions are urgently needed to bend the curve of the alarming rates of island biodiversity loss.

Islands are among the last regions on Earth settled and transformed by human activities, and they provide replicated model systems for analysis of how people affect ecological functions. By analyzing 27 representative fossil pollen sequences encompassing the past 5000 years from islands globally, we quantified the rates of vegetation compositional change before and after human arrival. After human arrival, rates of turnover accelerate by a median factor of 11, with faster rates on islands colonized in the past 1500 years than for those colonized earlier. This global anthropogenic acceleration in turnover suggests that islands are on trajectories of continuing change. Strategies for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem restoration must acknowledge the long duration of human impacts and the degree to which ecological changes today differ from prehuman dynamics.