Summary Background Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival. Methods We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index. Findings Global U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3–74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2–41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8–29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3–19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030, 154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9·65 million (95% UI 9·05–10·30) in 2000 and 5·05 million (4·27–6·02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3·76 million [95% UI 3·53–4·02]) in 2000 to 48% (2·42 million; 2·06–2·86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0·80 (95% UI 0·71–0·86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1·44 (95% UI 1·27–1·58) deaths per 1...

BackgroundWe explore long-term trends and determinants of socioeconomic inequities in chronic childhood undernutrition measured by stunting among under-five children in Bangladesh. Given that one in three children remain stunted in Bangladesh, the socioeconomic mapping of stunting prevalence may be critical in designing public policies and interventions to eradicate childhood undernutrition.MethodsSix rounds of Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey data are utilized, spanning the period 1996/97 to 2014. Using recognized measures of absolute and relative inequality (namely, absolute and relative difference, concentration curve and index), we quantify trends, and decompose changes in the concentration index to identify factors that best explain observed dynamics.ResultsDespite remarkable improvements in average nutritional status over the last two decades, socio-economic inequalities have persisted, and according to some measures, even worsened. For example, expressed as rate-ratios, the relative inequality in under-five stunting increased by 56% and the concentration index more than doubled between 1996/97 and 2014. Decomposition analyses find that wealth and maternal factors such as mothers’ schooling and short stature are major contributors to observed socio-economic inequalities in child undernutrition and their changes over time.ConclusionsReflecting on recent success around socioeconomic and gender equity in child mortality, and the weak legacy of nutrition policy in Bangladesh, we suggest that nutrition programming energies be focused specifically on the most disadvantaged and applied at scale to close socioeconomic gaps in stunting prevalence.

BackgroundContracting-out (CO) to non-state providers is used widely to increase access to health care, but it entails many implementation challenges. Using Bangladesh’s two decades of experience with contracting out Urban Primary Health Care (UPHC), this paper identifies contextual, contractual, and actor-related factors that require consideration when implementing CO in Low- and Middle- Income Countries.MethodsThis qualitative case-study is based on 42 in-depth interviews with past and present stakeholders working with the government and the UPHC project, as well as a desk review of key project documents. The Health Policy Triangle framework is utilized to differentiate among multiple intersecting contextual, contractual and actor-related factors that characterize and influence complex implementation processes.ResultsIn Bangladesh, the contextual factors, both intrinsic and extrinsic to the health system, deeply impacted the CO process. These included competition with other health projects, public sector reforms, and the broader national level political and bureaucratic environment. Providing free services to the poor and a target to recover cost were two contradictory conditions set out in the contract and were difficult for providers to achieve. In relation to actors, the choice of the executing body led to complications, functionally disempowering local government institutions (cities and municipalities) from managing CO processes, and discouraging integration of CO arrangements into the broader national health system. Politics and power dynamics undermined the ethical selection of project areas. Ultimately, these and other factors weakened the project’s ability to achieve one of its original objectives: to decentralize management responsibilities and develop municipal capacity in managing contracts.ConclusionsThis study calls attention to factors that need to be addressed to successfully implement CO projects, both in Bangladesh and similar countries. Country ownership is crucial for adapting and integrating CO in national health systems. Concurrent processes must be ensured to develop local CO capacity. CO modalities must be adaptable and responsive to changing context, while operating within an agreed-upon and appropriate legal framework with a strong ethical foundation.

IntroductionAccompanying rapid urbanization in Bangladesh are inequities in health and healthcare which are most visibly manifested in slums or low-income settlements. This study examines socioeconomic, demographic and geographic patterns of self-reported chronic illness and healthcare seeking among adult slum dwellers in Bangladesh. Understanding these patterns is critical in designing more equitable urban health systems and in enabling the country's goal of Universal Health Coverage by 2030. MethodsThis descriptive cross-sectional study compares survey data from slum settlements located in two urban sites in Bangladesh, Tongi and Sylhet. Reported chronic illness symptoms and associated healthcare-seeking strategies are compared, and the catastrophic impact of household healthcare expenditures are assessed. ResultsSignificant differences in healthcare-seeking for chronic illness were apparent both within and between slum settlements related to sex, wealth score (PPI), and location. Women were more likely to use private clinics than men. Compared to poorer residents, those from wealthier households sought care to a greater extent in private clinics, while poorer households relied more on drug shops and public hospitals. Chronic symptoms also differed. A greater prevalence of musculoskeletal, respiratory, digestive and neurological symptoms was reported among those with lower PPIs. In both slum sites, reliance on the private healthcare market was widespread, but greater in industrialized Tongi. Tongi also experienced a higher probability of catastrophic expenditure than Sylhet.

ObjectivesThis paper explores the underlying motivations and strategies of formal small and medium-sized formal private for-profit sector hospitals and clinics in urban Bangladesh and their implications for quality and access.MethodsThis exploratory qualitative study was conducted in Dhaka, Sylhet and Khulna City Corporations. Data collection methods included key informant interviews (20) with government and private sector leaders, in-depth interviews (30) with clinic owners, managers and providers and exit interviews (30) with healthcare clients.ResultsProfit generation is a driving force behind entry into the private healthcare business and the provision of services. However, non-financial motivations are also emphasised such as aspirations to serve the disadvantaged, personal ambition, desire for greater social status, obligations to continue family business and adverse family events.The discussion of private sector motivations and strategies is framed using the Business Policy Model. This model is comprised of three components:products and services, and efforts to make these attractive including patient-friendly discounts and service-packages, and building ‘good’ doctor-patient relationships;the market environment, cultivated using medical brokers and referral fees to bring in fresh clientele, and receipt of pharmaceutical incentives; and finally,organisational capabilities, in this case overcoming human resource shortages by relying on medical staff from the public sector, consultant specialists, on-call and less experienced doctors in training, unqualified nursing staff and referring complicated cases to public facilities.ConclusionsIn the context of low public sector capacity and growing healthcare demands in urban Bangladesh, private for-profit engagement is critical to achieving universal health coverage (UHC). Given the informality of the sector, the nascent state of healthcare financing, and a weak regulatory framework, the process of engagement must be gradual. Further research is needed to explore how engagement in UHC can be enabled while maintaining profitability. Incentives that support private sector efforts to improve quality, affordability and accountability are a first step in building this relationship.