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Abstract:In a greening Arctic, Iceland stands out as an area with very high increases in the AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, 1982(NDVI, -2010. We investigated the possible sources of this anomalous greening in Iceland's dynamic landscape, analyzing changes due to volcanism and warming temperatures, and the effects of agricultural and industrial land use changes. The analysis showed the increases were likely due to reductions in grazing in erosion-prone rangelands, extensive reclamation and afforestation efforts, as well as a response to warming climate, including glacial retreat. Like Scandinavia and much of the rest of the Arctic, Iceland has shown a recent reduction in NDVI since 2002, but still above pre-2000 levels. Theil-Sen robust regression analysis of MODIS NDVI trends from 2002 to 2013 showed Iceland had a slightly negative NDVI trend of 0.003 NDVI units/year (p < 0.05), with significant decreases in an area three times greater (29,809 km 2 ) than that with increases (9419 km 2 ). Specific areas with large decreases in NDVI during the last decade were due to the formation of a large reservoir as a part of a hydroelectric power project (Kárahnjúkar, 2002(Kárahnjúkar, -2009, and due to ashfall from two volcanic eruptions (Eyjafjallajökull, 2010; Grímsvötn, 2011). Increases in NDVI in the last decade were found in erosion control areas, around retreating glaciers, and in other areas of plant colonization following natural disturbance. Our analysis demonstrates the OPEN ACCESS Remote Sens. 2015, 7 9493 effectiveness of MODIS NDVI for identifying the causes of changes in land cover, and confirms the reduction in NDVI in the last decade using both the AVHRR and MODIS satellite data.

Plant colonization and succession on Surtsey have been monitored since 1965. In 2019, the 75th species of vascular plants was detected on the island, 62 species were present and about 40 species had established viable populations. Over the last decade colonization has slowed down and the number of present species not increased. The rising number of seagulls breeding on the island after 1985 had a great impact on plant colonization and vegetation development. While most parts of the island remained barren, a grassland area (13 ha in 2018) developed in the main seagull breeding colony on the southern part of the island. This development is attributed to transfer of nutrients from sea to land by the seagulls. In recent years a dense patch of vegetation, 2 ha in 2018, has also developed on the low, northern spit of the island, where a few pairs of seagulls breed in the spring and grey seals haul out and breed in the fall in considerable numbers. In a survey conducted during the grey seal pupping period in 2019, the seal abundance and spatial distribution was mapped accurately for the first time. The results show that the dense vegetation of the spit and seal distribution are clearly overlapping. The continuous shrinking of the island and its spit has led to an increasing concentration of the seals in their breeding area. Based on a literature survey we estimated the nitrogen (N) input from sea to land by the grey seals as 9-13 kg N/ha in 2019. This compares to an estimated input of 5-30 kg N/ha/yr by the seagulls breeding in the same area during 2015-2019. Within the grey seal and seagull breeding area on the spit of the island, a distinct community of shore plants has developed. Measurements of plant cover and biomass in permanent plots on Surtsey in 2018 and 2019 show that development on part of the spit is reaching a similar state as in the old gull colony on the southern part of the island. This suggests that the grey seals along with the seagulls are important drivers of plant succession on the northern spit. Further research on the effects of the seals on nutrient transfer from sea to land and ecosystem development on Surtsey is recommended.