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Headwater catchments have a direct impact on the water resources of downstream lowland regions as they supply freshwater in the form of surface runoff and discharging groundwater. Often, these mountainous catchments contain expansive permafrost that may alter the natural topographically controlled groundwater flow system. As permafrost could degrade with climate change, it is imperative to understand the effect of permafrost on groundwater flow in headwater catchments. This study characterizes groundwater flow in mountainous headwater catchments and evaluates the effect of permafrost in the context of climate change on groundwater movement using a three-dimensional, finite element, hydrogeologic model. The model is applied to a representative headwater catchment on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China. Results from the model simulations indicate that groundwater contributes significantly to streams in the form of baseflow and the majority of groundwater flow is from the shallow aquifer above the permafrost, disrupting the typical topographically controlled flow pattern observed in most permafrost-free headwater catchments. Under a warming scenario where mean annual surface temperature is increased by 28C, reducing the areal extent of permafrost in the catchment, groundwater contribution to streamflow may increase three-fold. These findings suggest that, in headwater catchments, permafrost has a large influence on groundwater flow and stream discharge. Increased annual air temperatures may increase groundwater discharge to streams, which has implications for ecosystem health and the long-term availability of water resources to downstream regions.

[1] The source region of the Yellow River, China, has experienced eco-environmental deterioration in recent decades. The Yellow River discharge has reduced to zero numerous times since 1960, which has left a devastating impact on water resources and ecosystems downstream. Seeking to understand the causes of drying up, we analyze the records of discharge, temperature, and precipitation and explore the linkages among them. Using wavelet analysis, we show that the Yellow River discharge represents a comprehensive response to climatic variations in temperature and precipitation. We suggest that the discharge is best explained by variations in temperature over a 35-50 year trend and precipitation over periods of less than 10 years. Zero discharge events can be quantitatively correlated to periods of warming and reduced precipitation. Findings of this study may have a broad implication in assessing how water resources respond to climate changes.

[1] The stagnant zones in nested flow systems have been assumed to be critical to accumulation of transported matter, such as metallic ions and hydrocarbons in drainage basins. However, little quantitative research has been devoted to prove this assumption. In this paper, the transport of age mass is used as an example to demonstrate that transported matter could accumulate around stagnation points. The spatial distribution of model age is analyzed in a series of drainage basins of different depths. We found that groundwater age has a local or regional maximum value around each stagnation point, which proves the accumulation of age mass. In basins where local, intermediate and regional flow systems are all well developed, the regional maximum groundwater age occurs at the regional stagnation point below the basin valley. This can be attributed to the long travel distances of regional flow systems as well as stagnancy of the water. However, when local flow systems dominate, the maximum groundwater age in the basin can be located around the local stagnation points due to stagnancy, which are far away from the basin valley. A case study is presented to illustrate groundwater flow and age in the Ordos Plateau, northwestern China. The accumulation of age mass around stagnation points is confirmed by tracer age determined by 14 C dating in two boreholes and simulated age near local stagnation points under different dispersivities. The results will help shed light on the relationship between groundwater flow and distributions of groundwater age, hydrochemistry, mineral resources, and hydrocarbons in drainage basins.

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