Similarly to other Mediterranean regions, Italy is expected to experience dramatic climatic changes in the coming decades. Do to their poikilohydric nature, lichens are among the most sensitive organisms to climate change and species requiring temperate-humid conditions may rapidly decline in Italy, such in the case of the epiphytic Lobaria species that are confined to humid forests. Our study, based on ecological niche modelling of occurrence data of three Lobaria species, revealed that in the next decades climate change will impact their distribution range across Italy, predicting a steep gradient of increasing range loss across time slices. Lobaria species are therefore facing a high extinction risk associated with reduction of their range. The current patterns indicate that only L. pulmonaria still has a continuous distribution across Italy, with potential contact between Apennine and Alpine populations. This situation is consistent with the wider climatic niche of this species, still offering a major opportunity for its successful long-term conservation. Results (a) support the inclusion of the three Lobaria species in European conservation policies, such as the Habitat Directive, and (b) warn against an over-estimation of the indicator power of single flagship species to establish conservation priorities for lichens, indicating that even lichens with peculiar and similar climatic envelopes may fail to co-occur within a given forest stand. A multiple indicator approach could provide more useful tools for a community-based conservation strategy for epiphytes.

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The Mediterranean is one of the major biodiversity hotspots of the world. It has been identified as the "core" of the speciation process for many groups of organisms. It hosts an impressive number of species, many of which are classified as endangered taxa. Climate change in such a diverse context could heavily influence community composition, reducing ecosystems resistance and resilience. This study aims at depicting the distribution of nine orchid species in the island of Sardinia (Italy), and at forecasting their future distribution in consequence of climate change. The models were produced by following an "ensemble" approach. We analysed present and future (2070) niche for the nine species, using Land Use and Soil Type, as well as 8 bioclimatic variables as predictors, selected because of their influence on the fitness of these orchids. Climate change in the next years, at Mediterranean latitudes, is predicted to results mainly in an increase of temperature and a decrease of precipitation. In 2070, the general trend for almost all modelled taxa is the widening of the suitable areas. However, not always the newly gained areas have high probability of presence. A correct interpretation of environmental changes is needed for developing effective conservation strategies.

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An ecological biogeographical perspective provides an understanding of the factors that shape the geographical distribution of organisms, their biodiversity and ecological speciation. Focusing on members of the lichen genus Solenopsora, which are strongly linked to a Mediterranean-type climate, we aimed to depict their environmental niches in the Apennine Peninsula. This area represents their ecological optima, as well as the biogeographical centre of distribution. On the basis of occurrences of Solenopsora congeners, we identified the key ecological factors that shape their environmental niches. Applying an ensemble approach, which merges the results of Random Forest, GLM and MaxEnt algorithms, suitability maps were developed. These are mainly influenced by geological substratum, temperature and precipitation. Occurrence of Solenopsora taxa seems to be mainly governed by low variability in diurnal temperature and tolerance to dryness, with precipitation in the range of 0–20 mm in the driest month and a minimum temperature of >5 °C in the coldest month. The sensitivity to diurnal temperature, an important indicator for climate change, suggests that the taxa confined to Mediterranean bioclimatic types (i.e. Solenopsora grisea, S. marina, S. olivacea subsp. olbiensis and S. olivacea subsp. olivacea) might be good indicators of climatic stability. The geological substratum was a strong limiting factor and separated the taxa into three groups: those growing on calcareous, siliceous and ultramafic substrata. Limited co-occurrence of species confined to one of the three categories suggests that the level of niche differentiation is on a microhabitat level. Accounting for ecological requirements, the taxa differ in their tolerance to sub-optimal conditions. The ecological niches of a sister subspecies pair with different reproduction strategies, fertile S. olivacea subsp. olivacea and sorediate S. olivacea subsp. olbiensis, overlap strongly. However, habitat suitability for S. olivacea subsp. olbiensis is greater in areas with higher precipitation in the driest month, whereas S. olivacea subsp. olivacea is more restricted to warmer and drier areas. We also report new regional records for Italy and the first records of S. cesatii in Serbia and Ukraine, and of S. liparina in Serbia.