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Ecosystem-based management requires understanding of food webs. Consequently, assessment of food web status is mandatory according to the European Union’s Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) for EU Member States. However, how to best monitor and assess food webs in practise has proven a challenging question. Here, we review and assess the current status of food web indicators and food web models, and discuss whether the models can help addressing current shortcomings of indicator-based food web assessments, using the Baltic Sea as an example region. We show that although the MSFD food web assessment was designed to use food web indicators alone, they are currently poorly fit for the purpose, because they lack interconnectivity of trophic guilds. We then argue that the multiple food web models published for this region have a high potential to provide additional coherence to the definition of good environmental status, the evaluation of uncertainties, and estimates for unsampled indicator values, but we also identify current limitations that stand in the way of more formal implementation of this approach. We close with a discussion of which current models have the best capacity for this purpose in the Baltic Sea, and of the way forward towards the combination of measurable indicators and modelling approaches in food web assessments.

Legal requirement in Europe asks for Ecosystem-Based Fisheries Management (EBFM) in European seas, including consideration of trophic interactions and minimization of negative impacts of fishing on food webs and ecosystem functioning. This study presents the first mass-balanced ecosystem model focused on the western Baltic Sea (WBS). Results show that heavy fishing pressure exerted on the WBS has forced top predators such as harbour porpoise and cod to cover their dietary needs by shifting from forage fish to other prey or find food outside of the model area. The model was then developed to explore the dynamics of four future fishery scenarios: (1) business as usual (BAU), (2) maximum sustainable fishing (F = FMSY), (3) half of FMSY, and (4) EBFM with F = 0.5 FMSY for forage fish and F = 0.8 FMSY for other fish. Simulations show that BAU would perpetuate low catches from depleted stocks with a high risk of extinction for harbour porpoise. In contrast, the EBFM scenario would allow the recovery of harbour porpoise, forage fish and cod with increases in catch of herring and cod. EBFM promotes ecosystem resilience to eutrophication and ocean warming, and through the rebuilding of commercial stocks increases by more than three times carbon sequestration compared to BAU. The model provides an interrelated assessment of trophic guilds in the WBS, as required by European law to assess whether European seas are in good environmental status.